JP Morgan Asia Economist on Oil Shock Duration (with Haslinda Amin)

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JP Morgan Asia Economist on Oil Shock Duration (with Haslinda Amin)

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If this would go on for weeks and months, then of course it represents a big macro shock... We're seeing a large geopolitical risk premium. Storage constraints could force production cuts if Strait closure prolonged.

3/3/2026 2:24:23 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+26.94%	+40.40%
3/3/2026 11:01:30 AM	short term up	5 days later	+26.94%	+26.94%

Asking about market reassessment and duration risk.

Haslinda Amin
Sajjid Chinoy

Duration key; if beyond 2 weeks, becomes non-linear due to storage constraints; crude could snap back to $60-65 if brief.

Pre-conflict crude market had structural excess supply; geopolitical risk premium now.
Asking what it takes for global inflation issue.

Haslinda Amin
Sajjid Chinoy

Crude triple digits for several months would impact inflation expectations and growth.

Asia has favorable starting points: low inflation, better current accounts.
Asking if India most at risk.

Haslinda Amin
Sajjid Chinoy

India large oil importer but current account deficit <1% GDP, reserves buffer; remittances also at risk.

EMs improved macro frameworks post-2013.
Asking about strong dollar and Asian currencies.

Haslinda Amin
Sajjid Chinoy

Dollar strength a worry; countries with low inflation, large reserves can manage; currency should be shock absorber.

Correlated shocks: oil up, gold up, capital flows questionable.
Asking about Japan and developed markets.

Haslinda Amin
Sajjid Chinoy

Developed markets more vulnerable due to sticky inflation; Fed may look through short shock.

US inflation missed target 6 years; producers benefit but consumers hurt.

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