Trump's 'final stages' Iran rhetoric is posturing; he's desperate for a pre-election exit. A short-term deal is being brokered (reopen Hormuz for lifting blockade), creating a bearish skew for WTI if it materializes. However, progress is 'baby steps.' Iran's claims of 30 ships/day through Hormuz are unverified & a fraction of the pre-war 130. The geopolitical risk premium in oil is high, but the catalyst for its removal is not yet credible.