David Rosenberg argues that the recent rise in bond yields is driven by real rates, not inflation expectations, which remain anchored. He believes the energy shock has not seeped into wages, and that core inflation is already below target when adjusted for energy-adjacent items. He sees the US consumer in a recession on the income side (real disposable income negative 1% YoY), propped up only by a falling savings rate and credit. He expects the Fed's next move to be a cut, not a hike, and that bond yields have peaked. He criticizes the ECB's rate hike as a policy mistake and views the Canadian economy as flat with a household debt crisis.