Torsten Slok discusses the Fed's hawkish dot plot (9 of 18 dots signaling a hike this year) and the dramatic drop in oil prices from $120 to below $80 in two months, which has significant disinflationary implications. He argues this justifies Kevin Warsh's reluctance to give forward guidance, as conditions change rapidly. On AI and labor, he sees a net positive effect on employment and productivity over the next 18 months, as cheaper technology enables record new business formations that outweigh displacement risks.
implicit
implicit
explicit
Metals
USD
Apollo
9.0
Asset Manager $671.00B
Torsten Slok 9.5
Asset Manager $671.00B
Torsten Slok 9.5
US rates; US 10y
6/18/2026 10:19:18 PM
ndx
Slok discusses AI data center buildout as a potential inflation driver and AI's impact on business formation and employment, implying tech sector sensitivity to these cross-currents.
rut
Slok highlights record new business applications (highest in US history) and a net positive effect on employment from AI, which disproportionately benefits small caps.
wti
Oil prices dropped from $120 to below $80 in two months, a very dramatic decline.
| 6/4/2026 9:00:32 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.56% | -0.28% |
| 3/27/2026 7:30:29 PM | long term cautious down | 60 days later | -15.09% | +7.54% |
| 3/27/2026 1:02:36 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/3/2026 6:19:39 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +26.94% |
| 1/8/2026 11:05:50 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +4.91% | -2.45% |
yields
Slok says 'we may get some more volatility' and 'we will get volatility in the opposite direction' due to conflicting forces (hawkish Fed vs. falling oil).
