Inflation Expectations Are Stable, Says Apollo's Slok

Yields up , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX cautious down , short term, gpt inferred

inferred

RUT

Oil cautious down , long term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Metals

USD

Apollo 7.8
Asset Manager $671.00B
Torsten Slok 9.0

Inflation Expectations Are Stable, Says Apollo's Slok

ndx

Mentions software has its own problems in high yield market context, and discusses economic slowing risks that would pressure growth stocks. No explicit NDX direction given.

wti

We're gonna have... 50 years of security in the Middle East that will keep down oil prices... we will probably have more stability more broadly relative to where we were just a few months ago. Expects Middle East resolution leading to more stability and GCC connections with US/Europe, which should keep oil prices down long-term.

4 calls

+39

reliable positive edge across multiple calls

3/27/2026 1:02:36 AM	short term up	7 days later	+9.26%	+9.26%
3/3/2026 6:19:39 PM	short term up	5 days later	+26.94%	+26.94%
1/8/2026 11:05:50 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+4.91%	-2.45%

Show all 3 wti results

yields

That does bring the risk that there is some upside pressure on rates, both in the front and the long end... the level of yields in rates is also under upward pressure because of this supply being so significant. Massive $14T investment-grade bond supply (50% of GDP) combined with inflation pressures creates technical upward pressure on yields.

10 calls

+4

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

12/23/2025 11:03:06 PM	long term up	61 days later	-2.59%	-2.59%
10/28/2025 5:15:14 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+1.60%	+0.80%
10/13/2025 6:26:53 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+2.09%	+1.04%
10/9/2025 2:13:08 AM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+1.04%	+1.56%
8/29/2025 2:18:36 PM	short term sharp down	6 days later	-5.40%	+8.10%
8/15/2025 11:30:11 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-6.80%	+3.40%

Show all 6 yields results

Asks about inflation expectations - market-based vs. survey-based measures, and whether it's time to worry.

Speaker1
Torsten Slok

Headline inflation is up due to food/energy, but core inflation expectations unknown. Consumer sentiment indicators are declining, yet actual spending data (air travel, retail sales, hotel demand) remains strong. Long-term inflation expectations from Michigan survey are well-anchored and stable.

Divergence between what consumers say and what they do suggests duration of shock not long enough for demand destruction.
Torsten Slok

Markets see current inflation as transitory/temporary. Fed follows PCE (rising even without oil), not just CPI. Bloomberg survey shows economists expect inflation rise but still two cuts this year, while recession probability increased from 25% to 30%.

Creates bifurcated distribution: worry about extended high inflation OR harder landing. This is the Fed's challenge - balancing inflation weight vs. labor market deterioration risk.
Asks if low-hire, low-fire labor market still intact given low jobless claims.

Speaker1
Torsten Slok

Low-hire, low-fire due to energy shock (previously trade war). Companies cautious because uncertainty about shock duration and oil prices. Jobless claims remain low.

Rational corporate response to uncertainty.
Asks what jobs data would signal Fed relief.

Speaker1
Torsten Slok

Next Friday's jobs number critical for rates and credit. Labor market data taking more prominent role because inflation says hike but labor market might show cooling, especially with immigration restrictions weighing on labor supply.

Fed's SEP revised up inflation and GDP, but labor market softness would make decisions more challenging.
References Slok's chart predicting short-term bond market disturbance and 50 years of Middle East security keeping oil prices down - asks about this time forecast.

Speaker3
Torsten Slok

Current Middle East situation not sustainable for years or even months. Expect resolution, with political considerations from Iran and US ahead of midterm elections. Outcome likely more GCC connection with US/Europe and more stability.

Investors should take long-term perspective.
Asks about $14T investment-grade supply chart and how that number was calculated.

Speaker3
Torsten Slok

$10T Treasury refinancing + $2T budget deficit + $2T corporate IG issuance = $14T total IG supply (50% of US GDP). This creates upside pressure on rates (front and long end) and upward pressure on credit spreads.

Combined with inflation pressures from tariffs, oil, strong economy, and now massive supply.
Asks about demand dynamics given known supply.

Speaker3
Torsten Slok

Current high yields look interesting if oil prices come down and economy slows. Both base rates and credit spreads are temporarily high, making all-in yields in IG and parts of HY look juicy.

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