Apollo's Torsten Slok: A Fed rate hike is still 'extremely unlikely'

implicit

RUT

explicit

Metals

USD

Apollo 7.8
Asset Manager $671.00B
Torsten Slok 9.0

Apollo's Torsten Slok: A Fed rate hike is still 'extremely unlikely'

wti

market putting weight on higher oil prices Oil price shock from geopolitical conflict is central to inflation and policy discussion, creating upward pressure.

5 calls

+31

reliable positive edge across multiple calls

3/3/2026 6:19:39 PM	short term up	5 days later	+26.94%	+26.94%
1/8/2026 11:05:50 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+4.91%	-2.45%

yields

Market pricing higher likelihood of Fed hike due to oil price shock and inflation pressures, though interviewee thinks hike unlikely. Implies upward pressure on yields in near term from market expectations.

Introduces topic: fallout from war pushing rate hike odds higher; key question is duration of economic shock.

Michael
Torsten Slok

Remarkable shift in market conversation from AI/rate cuts to pricing higher likelihood of Fed hike due to oil prices, tariffs, and strong economy.

Notes market putting weight on higher oil prices, upward inflation pressure from tariffs, and generally strong economy creating difficult spot for Fed.
Torsten Slok

Still thinks Fed hike extremely unlikely because oil price shocks come with risk of demand destruction and growth slowdown.
Asks about European inflation impact and ECB's single mandate versus Fed's dual mandate.

Melissa
Torsten Slok

ECB has one goal (inflation to 2%) while Fed has two (inflation and full employment), giving Fed more flexibility.

Notes downside risks to growth if shock persists, creating challenge for ECB: inflation going up while economy slows.
Questions characterization of US economy doing remarkably well, citing weak job growth, housing not engine of growth.

Michael
Torsten Slok

Points to strong incoming data: TSA passenger throughput at record highs, strong same-store retail sales, strong hotel demand and occupancy.

Acknowledges if shock continues, demand destruction could slow things, but tailwinds from AI spending and infrastructure bill suggest stability if shock is temporary.

SignalTube

markets at a glance