metals

I would be tilting toward gold and have a greater than normal amount to that... They're still short of gold. Gold is framed as a strategic reserve currency and diversifier in a breaking monetary order, driven by central bank buying and geopolitical conflict reducing appetite for fiat debt.

metals

Gold continues to perform very, very well... playing its traditional role... That's likely to continue. We wouldn't want to be overly focused on gold. Supported by debasement risk and geopolitical uncertainty, but framed as a traditional, possibly temporary hedge, not a core long-term conviction.

yields

US Treasury yields, we think over time, long-term yields likely to go up. Part of the thesis that the old 60/40 portfolio is inadequate in a fractured world; a headwind for traditional strategies.

metals

these prices of gold and silver will continue to go higher... the momentum trade in precious metals is going to stay so strong that they're going to continue to go higher. Driven by massive buying from Asia, especially China, where economic trouble and desire for protection are fueling demand. Central bank buying to de-dollarize adds to momentum.

ndx

but it will be volatile. In the context of discussing market reactions to geopolitical headlines and the underlying US strength, she explicitly states the near-term path will be volatile.

yields

we're moving structurally higher because we have a more uncertain economic environment... we need to structurally higher a term premium and a structurally higher yield. Japan's fiscal risks are triggering a global repricing of sovereign debt; US-specific factors (supply, uncertainty, correlation shift) support a sustained rise.

yields

I wouldn't be surprised if we move up a little bit... there's probably more upside than there is downside. Spillover from Japanese bond market (100bps increase), inflation not returning to 2%, geopolitical concerns, higher term premium, Fed unlikely to cut rates next week.

ndx

Stock market, new highs almost every week... We have higher nominal growth than China. The interviewee explicitly cites the stock market making new highs as a key indicator of economic strength. His entire narrative is one of robust US economic outperformance, a capex and productivity boom, and successful policy—all of which are bullish for equity markets in the near term.

dxy

Dollar here big drop overnight, 98.24 Described as a 'big drop' in the context of the Euro bumping up, indicating a clear downward move.

metals

Gold rose past $4,700 an ounce to a record high, while silver also reached an all-time high... Expect to see some of your commodities start to push a bit higher here on a broad-based scale. Record highs and ongoing ETF inflows (6 straight days for gold) show strong bullish momentum, supported by geopolitical tensions (US-Europe, China-Taiwan).

ndx

He states 'Stock futures are solidly lower' and discusses broad equity declines in Europe and Asia due to trade war rhetoric and political uncertainty, implying a negative short-term direction for US indices like the NDX.

yields

10-year yields are breaking out, pushing through the top end of the range here, which is about 4.22 to 4.25% so we broke out through that 4.29% Breakout above a defined resistance level indicates upward momentum. He links it to expectations of inflation data picking up.

metals

if you actually look at why gold has rallied over the last year. A lot of that is because central banks are trying to buy gold. Why they want diversification from the dollar? Links gold rally to central bank diversification demand post-Russia sanctions, suggesting structural rather than temporary trend.

metals

Just like we're seeing gold take off... gold has rallied over the last year... central banks are starting to buy gold... they want diversification from the dollar. Links gold rally to central bank diversification demand post-US asset freezes, suggesting structural, long-term trend.

metals

gold certainly continues to price some unknowns... silver's trickier here I'm not quite sure how to measure risk reward there anymore Gold bullish due to geopolitical/unknown pricing; silver has extreme volume making risk/reward assessment difficult but still part of ongoing theme

yields

We went from basically 390 in the fall up to about 420 over the last number of weeks... this is about economic growth getting better... it would be hard to reconcile 10 year yields much below 4% Yield rise accompanied by cyclical outperformance suggests growth-driven move; with 6% nominal GDP, yields should stay above 4%

yields

what you're seeing and the bond yield is that you're some risk premium is being baked in now in terms of the long term yields of the 10 year to 30 year Trade uncertainty is causing investors to demand higher risk premium in bonds, similar to April's pattern during trade volatility.

dxy

The dollar is extremely overvalued... I suspect that once we have some clarity about what's happening on the geopolitical front... the attention then will turn back to, okay, what are we doing vis-à-vis the dollar... and that's where we're going to be in the second half of the year. Dollar has depreciated 10-12% from peak, Fed is cutting rates, US has large twin deficits, and the administration wants a weaker dollar.

metals

Do not buy silver at current levels... I really struggle to buy silver at current levels. Silver has rallied 50-60% in months, implied volatility is 65-70%, it's at an all-time high. The physical shortage narrative is questionable, and the gold/silver ratio would need to collapse for further gains.

yields

BOJ likely to upgrade growth forecast. Message will be no change but talking about possible hike going forward to persuade market they're on right course to higher rates.

metals

I think there's a lot of room for the metals both gold and silver to move... The adoption cycle for investors is just beginning... frankly I think 230 to 250 will end up being a conservative estimate on a three-year time frame. Structural de-dollarization, sustained central bank buying (~1000 tons/year), new industrial demand for silver (solar, batteries), multi-year supply deficits, and supply inelasticity create a powerful bullish setup over a multi-year horizon.

wti

I expect to see softness... If you said three to six months, you've got a weakness in price... weakness front half of 2026... Ample US supply (13.6M bpd), with US shale being 70-80% of global supply growth. The near-term risk is shale production rolling over, but other projects (Venezuela, Guyana) may come online. The setup is for front-half weakness before a potential recovery.

metals

Pettit describes gold as a 'really easy inflation trade' that people go to when concerned about runaway inflation. He notes ETF flows and momentum trading, framing it as a hedge for longer-term inflation risks, suggesting a cautiously positive outlook.

yields

if you chip away too much [at Fed independence], in my view, this is my opinion, it will drive rates higher, not lower. Links political pressure/erosion of Fed credibility directly to higher interest rates.

ndx

disappointing news on AI could lead to a sharp decline in equity prices Bowman explicitly links AI disappointment to sharp equity decline, implying NDX (tech-heavy) vulnerability.

yields

I do believe that's going to lead to a steeper yield curve. Justification is deflationary trends from AI and China's trade surplus creating conditions for lower policy rates, which historically steepen the curve. The risk of elevated rates due to fiscal deficits and potential loss of foreign confidence in US Treasuries provides a secondary, longer-term bullish argument for yields.

yields

it will drive rates higher, not lower Political interference with Federal Reserve independence undermines credibility and could lead to inflationary expectations, forcing higher rates.

wti

it will definitely lead to an increase of spike in oil prices Conditional on Iran shutting down Strait of Hormuz, which would create immediate supply concerns similar to historical tanker wars.

yields

We think all things considered, there is room to cut the policy rate in the second quarter by 10 basis points. That's our forecast. Room for cut is constrained by net interest margin at record low; PBOC will use cuts sparingly and efficiently. Monetary support may mostly be liquidity injection to prevent bond yields from rising.

ndx

Explicitly states that 10-year yields over 5-5.5% 'would shock the equity market' and 'have a very negative impact on the equity market... force a revaluation.' This is a direct causal link from his yield view to equities.

yields

there's a probability we could see the ten year over 5%, maybe even 5.5%... the yield curve is going to get steeper, not flatter. Driven by potential new inflationary pressures from private capital deployment and deficit concerns, not the Fed's immediate actions.

metals

I still like gold as well... We are just going through this huge debasement cycle right now. And I think that's likely to continue... Every time there was a debasement cycle, the S&P 500 underperformed gold, which is happening right now. And I think that could potentially continue if the debasement cycle continues. Thesis based on long-term historical currency debasement cycles (4th since 1800s) driven by fiscal deficit, debt-to-GDP, and inflation. Gold outperforms equities during such periods.

rut

I still like the Russell 2000... For small caps to outperform you need speculation... you need a good manufacturing cycle. And I think we are on the cusp of a potential manufacturing upcycle for the first time in three years. Rotation from mega-caps to small caps driven by fiscal tailwinds and a changing market reaction function where higher rates are now seen as cyclical, not restrictive. A potential manufacturing upcycle provides fundamental support.

dxy

Don't feel strongly about dollar this year; don't see strong magnetic pull for dollar; good US growth not super weak for dollar but no bullish case

metals

It could go sideways for a year Has been selling gold over last six months due to large holding; acknowledges short-term consolidation potential

yields

If we are... I think... Rates can go down and still a fair amount... I do [see rates lower at the end of this year]. Conditional on seeing convincing evidence that inflation is on a path back to 2%. The direction is cautious due to the explicit conditionality and noted concerns about persistent services inflation.

yields

I think rates can come down... I do [see rates lower at end of year] Conditional on convincing evidence inflation returning to 2%. Sees progress but non-housing services inflation still concerning at >4% annualized.

metals

I believe that they're going to go far higher than where they actually are right now, even in a short time frame. Central bank demand shift from treasuries to gold; industrial demand for silver from AI, data centers, solar; supply constraints (mining); low producer input costs relative to output price.

rut

We're neutral small caps... We're gonna remain more neutral in that space. The explicit 'neutral' stance, supported by a multi-year pattern of earnings estimate downgrades, translates to a 'sideways' directional view for the Russell 2000 (RUT).

ndx

all of these points to a pretty robust US equity market outlook Superior earnings power, AI long-term growth, capex, and supportive fiscal policy ahead of midterms underpin strength. Fed cuts less relevant.

ndx

Tech's gonna reassert its leadership... I think Mag7 breaks out from this consolidation and reasserts some form of leadership. Sees Goldilocks backdrop (disinflation, fiscal stimulus, rate cuts) as 'pretty great backdrop for equities' and expects tech to lead after recent underperformance.

wti

we're going to have oil cooperating in our view Part of cyclical disinflation story; oil price cooperation suggests contained or downward pressure on prices in the near term as a disinflationary tailwind.

wti

We think Brent prices can hit $70 in the next few days and WTI up to around $66-67. Geopolitical risk premium from Iran/Russia-Ukraine conflicts, supply disruptions, and shift from bearish to neutral/slightly bearish view due to demand/supply uncertainty.

yields

The 10-year tends to follow nominal GDP... should we have four and a quarter? It probably should be higher than that. Nominal GDP >8% is booming and historically inconsistent with Fed cuts. US economy not productive enough to offset high nominal GDP without inflation. Market overconfident in Fed's ability to cut.

yields

Market prices in a little over two Fed cuts this year; likely at least some will happen. First couple cuts seem more certain. Expects 10-year Treasury to be in a pretty tight, stable range for rest of year. Expects Fed to cut rates, which would put downward pressure on front-end yields, while long-end remains rangebound.

metals

it's just a big momentum trade... could go for a lot longer Driven by hedge fund momentum, central bank diversification from dollar reserves after geopolitical events (Russian assets), and as a hedge against dollar debasement/inflation.

rut

small caps would struggle if we don't get a couple rate cuts... I think small caps probably do need a couple rate cuts to rally. But I think we're gonna get them. His bullish view on small caps (RUT proxy) is conditional on receiving rate cuts, which he expects. He also notes small caps are now more rate-sensitive and relatively cheap.

yields

we're looking at continued lowering rates regardless of political pressures, at least on the short end of the curve to address these situations. Based on debt/deficit picture and weakening labor market.

yields

I don't expect by the way there to be a rate cut at this next meeting... I don't see any need for them to move The explicit expectation of *no rate cut* implies yields are not likely to fall sharply. The direction 'cautious down' reflects the overall tone that there is no urgent need for policy easing, suggesting yields may drift lower cautiously if inflation data permits, but no aggressive action is forthcoming.