Ozan Tarman on market resilience and AI (with Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal)

2/25/2026 4:01:36 PM	long term down	60 days later	+0.71%	-0.71%
1/7/2026 5:16:11 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-2.51%	+1.25%
12/13/2025 3:06:15 AM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	+0.12%	+0.06%
9/17/2025 2:40:32 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.54%	-0.77%

12/8/2025 6:17:38 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-0.56%	-0.28%
10/3/2025 2:55:16 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+3.37%	-1.69%

Ozan Tarman

Markets keep going higher because 'buses are empty' – investors are underinvested, similar to April 2020 after the tariff shock. Earnings are strong: Q4 13% growth, Q1 record led by tech at 24%.

The rally since April 1st/9th has been historic, led by Nasdaq and S&P, but very few people believed in it. Positioning is a big part, but fundamentals (earnings) also matter.

Ozan Tarman

The AI narrative is dominant. The Kool-Aid is to believe this AI run has another 1-2 years to go, comparing it to 1999 tech. Either you swim with it or try to fight it.

Before the Iran war began, the talk was about 50% of white-collar jobs being wiped out in 12-18 months. Warflation expectations were pushed aside as the market focused on the AI engine. The rally was broader in Jan-Feb (led by Russell), but now it's back to 7 stocks.

Ozan Tarman

Financial repression will likely win in the UK – no Liz Truss moment 2.0. But they need luck for the Iran situation to calm down, as the current selloff is for reasons beyond the UK.

The UK has a different risk premium with budget and current account deficits. The local elections matter for fiscal direction. In September, all four (US, France, Japan, UK) had mini-Truss moments but only 4 hours in gilts.

Ozan Tarman

The market miscalculated on the dollar after Trump's election – everyone was long dollars but currencies went the other way. Markets can be very wrong.

Consensus was US 10yr to 5.50%, everyone buying dollar puts at 775 strikes. Instead, start currencies rallied.

Ozan Tarman

Bank of Japan intervened by 'punting for risk parity' – lower volatility, calmer waters, stable rates. They pushed USD/JPY lower, US rates calmed, equities got a boost.

It's a tug of war between central banks trying to keep things calm and fast money looking for 2022-like volatility. The BOJ didn't call banks this time, they acted directly.

Ozan Tarman

Chinese financial assets (equities and bonds) have room to grow. It starts with FX, but there is a lot more room to go.

2-3 years ago people were confident China was uninvestable. That view was wrong. The free trade train has moved.

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