Oil's trajectory hinges on Hormuz supply normalization. The key asymmetry: every month of delay adds +$10/bbl to year-end prices. Inventory draws have masked the deficit, but this buffer is eroding, increasing fragility. A secondary risk is a US export ban if diesel stocks hit critical lows by August. This would cause a violent blowout in the Brent-WTI spread. Refinery yield shifts are a tactical distraction from the core strategic supply risk.
Yields
NDX
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
Goldman Sachs
9.0
Investment Bank $2500.00B
Daan Struyven 9.0
Investment Bank $2500.00B
Daan Struyven 9.0
WTI
5/19/2026 3:31:58 PM
wti
Risks are skewed to the upside on net. Every month of delay in the supply normalization process is worth $10 of upside to prices by year end.
| 4/29/2026 1:22:14 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/28/2026 5:35:52 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.65% |
| 4/28/2026 4:05:03 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.65% |
| 4/28/2026 2:02:43 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.65% |
| 4/25/2026 1:12:14 AM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +6.26% | +3.13% |
| 4/23/2026 5:28:36 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +13.22% | +6.61% |
| 4/23/2026 5:25:28 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +13.22% | +19.83% |
| 3/27/2026 9:31:06 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/24/2026 3:04:57 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +1.06% |
| 3/24/2026 8:45:15 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +1.06% |
| 3/20/2026 4:06:06 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +16.74% | +25.10% |
| 3/18/2026 10:29:20 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 1/30/2026 6:19:23 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +6.71% | -3.36% |
| 1/13/2026 10:26:30 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +1.92% | -1.92% |
| 12/19/2025 7:26:29 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | +2.57% | -2.57% |
| 11/26/2025 10:19:54 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.35% | +2.67% |
| 10/31/2025 3:16:06 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | -3.62% | +3.62% |
| 9/29/2025 2:12:26 PM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.09% | +1.09% |
