Tech rally, energy, and global markets outlook (with Romaine Bostick, Katie Greifeld)

Oppenheimer sees tech rally validated by earnings rotation from software to old-school chip/infrastructure plays as AI capex integrates. Energy has cyclical support from stable oil (low 80s) plus secular AI/electricity demand. US markets look attractive again as PEG ratios converge globally, but diversification across sectors and regions is key. Middle East disruption impact modest if resolved by mid-May.

Yields

NDX up , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT

Oil cautious up , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Metals

USD

Goldman Sachs 9.0
Investment Bank $2500.00B
Peter Oppenheimer 9.0

Tech rally, energy, and global markets outlook (with Romaine Bostick, Katie Greifeld)

wti

We think they're going to average in the low 80s this year.

4/23/2026 5:28:36 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+13.22%	+6.61%
4/23/2026 5:25:28 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+13.22%	+19.83%
3/27/2026 9:31:06 AM	short term up	7 days later	+9.26%	+9.26%
3/24/2026 3:04:57 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+1.06%	+1.06%
3/24/2026 8:45:15 AM	medium term up	20 days later	+1.06%	+1.06%
3/20/2026 4:06:06 PM	short term sharp up	7 days later	+16.74%	+25.10%
3/18/2026 10:29:20 AM	short term up	5 days later	-3.94%	-3.94%
1/30/2026 6:19:23 AM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+6.71%	-3.36%
1/13/2026 10:26:30 AM	medium term down	20 days later	+1.92%	-1.92%
12/19/2025 7:26:29 PM	medium term down	21 days later	+2.57%	-2.57%
11/26/2025 10:19:54 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-5.35%	+2.67%
10/31/2025 3:16:06 PM	medium term down	21 days later	-3.62%	+3.62%
9/29/2025 2:12:26 PM	short term down	6 days later	-1.09%	+1.09%

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Asks about the tech rally and a note from earlier in April about the drop in valuations creating a buying opportunity.

Romaine Bostick
Peter Oppenheimer

The rally is driven by value emerging in growth parts of the market and growth in value parts, specifically AI infrastructure. A major derating in software due to AI disruption fears left them cheap relative to profit growth, now being validated.

People got very worried about disruption from AI models, particularly in software businesses, generating one of the biggest deratings in decades.
Notes the rally is led by 'old school' companies like Texas Instruments and Intel, not just Nvidia or Microsoft, and asks what this means.

Romaine Bostick
Peter Oppenheimer

The market is rotating from the 'new economy' (growth) to the 'old economy' (value) as hyperscaler capex integrates physical assets like chips, data centers, and energy. This creates a more layered market with different performance within sectors.

For 15 years post-financial crisis, tech outperformed everything. Now, capex is creating a rotation, with infrastructure plays benefiting from AI capex while other value areas like autos lag.
Asks about energy stocks, noting they underperformed earnings expectations despite high oil prices, and what staying around current levels means for the sector.

Katie Greifeld
Peter Oppenheimer

Energy sector has re-rated due to oil price sensitivity. The cyclical story is supported by stable oil prices (~low 80s). The longer-term secular story is about energy infrastructure for independence and AI electricity demand.

The longer-term story in energy is about infrastructure and building out capacity, not just cyclical oil price moves.
Asks how the cyclical vs. structural nuance in energy impacts portfolio construction.

Katie Greifeld
Peter Oppenheimer

Advocates for broad diversification. The market is now more layered and differentiated, even within sectors (e.g., hardware vs. software in tech, infrastructure vs. autos in value).

You're getting a much more layered and differentiated market even within the same sectors.
Asks if the global market will become more US-driven after non-US outperformance earlier in the year.

Katie Greifeld
Peter Oppenheimer

The US is looking more attractive again as PEG ratios have converged with the rest of the world. However, selective attractive opportunities exist in other markets, so selectivity and diversification are key.

Back in late 2024 we argued for geographic broadening, and non-US markets did outperform. But now the US is looking more attractive again.
Asks about the headline risk from the Middle East, which the market seems to have put behind it.

Romaine Bostick
Peter Oppenheimer

The overall growth impact is modest if the Strait disruption ends by mid-May. It would reduce global growth by ~0.4% and increase core inflation by ~0.2%, but global GDP growth would still be ~2.7%.

Unless the disruption continues much longer, the overall growth effect vis-à-vis company profits is relatively modest.

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