Trump's Iran strike pause is a tactical head-fake, not a strategic pivot. Gulf states are blinking, desperate for an off-ramp, which cedes leverage to Tehran. Core disagreements on Hormuz & nuclear enrichment remain intractable. This de-escalation is a temporary, mispriced calm. The market is complacent. Expect a violent repricing of geopolitical risk in oil & rates when talks inevitably falter. The threat is merely postponed, not removed.