Stephen Stapinski discusses the oil market's reaction to U.S.-Iran negotiations. He notes that any progress in talks leads to a selloff in WTI and Brent, but there is a general fear of escalation. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is complex, with issues like shipping fees and safety concerns preventing a quick return to pre-war supply levels.
Yields
NDX
RUT

explicit
Metals
USD
Bloomberg 5.5
Financial Media
Stephen Stapinski 4.0
5/26/2026 7:28:47 AM
wti
Any progress in U.S.-Iran talks leads to a selloff in WTI and Brent.
176 calls
+7
slightly better than random
Anthony Stevens analyzes the Asia market open, noting that cross-asset leads show FX following equities. He highlights a massive gap between momentum-driven tech/robotics stocks and the rest of the market, particularly in Korea. The tech rally is supported by incremental improvement headlines, and the dollar's weakness is providing a sigh of relief for FX markets.
Yields

implicit
RUT
Oil
Metals

explicit
Bloomberg 5.5
Financial Media
Anthony Stevens 4.0
5/26/2026 7:28:47 AM
dxy
FX had a sigh of relief yesterday. The dollar weakened against every G10 currency.
52 calls
-1
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
ndx
The tech rally is being driven by incremental technology improvement headlines, with robotics being the next leg. This suggests continued upward momentum for tech-heavy indices like the NDX.
106 calls
+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
Vasu Menon is positive on equities, seeing the correction as an opportunity. He likes China and Hong Kong for their technology innovation and domestic demand story. He is also positive on gold, expecting it to reach $5,500/oz, and sees the dollar weakening over the next 6-12 months as Middle East tensions ease.
Yields

implicit
RUT
Oil

explicit

explicit
OCBC 7.0
Commercial Bank
Vasu Menon 8.5
5/26/2026 7:28:47 AM
dxy
We think the dollar is likely to weaken over the next six to 12 months as tensions in the Middle East ease.
1 calls
+10
slightly better than random
metals
We see gold potentially escalating to about $5,500 per ounce over the next 12 months.
1 calls
-11
slightly worse than random
ndx
The interviewee is positive on equities and sees the correction as an opportunity. The tech sector is a key driver, and the gap with the U.S. is narrowing.
wti
The interviewee sees a compromise between the US and Iran as likely, and notes that traffic is returning to the Strait of Hormuz. This implies an expectation of easing supply constraints, which would be bearish for oil prices.
David Finnerty discusses the FX market's focus on the U.S.-Iran war, with the yuan strengthening despite capital control news. He sees the dollar's downside as limited due to the strong U.S. economy. On Treasuries, he notes the market is very sensitive to news, and the pricing for rate hikes may have gone too far, making yields attractive.

implicit
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals

implicit
Bloomberg 5.5
Financial Media
David Finnerty 4.0
5/26/2026 7:28:47 AM
dxy
The knee-jerk reaction to an enduring peace would be to sell the dollar, though the downside is limited by the strong U.S. economy.
52 calls
-1
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
yields
The market has gone too far in pricing for rate hikes. Positive headlines and weak data could lead to a rally in Treasuries, pushing yields lower.
136 calls
-+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
Amy Auster analyzes the Australian budget's tax changes, noting that the CGT discount change for property was expected, but the broader application across all capital gains was a surprise. She believes the impact on the property market will be muted, with prices tracking sideways and volumes dropping. She highlights positive productivity reforms in the budget.
Yields
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Policy Institute of Australia 2.5
Policy Institute
Amy Auster 7.0
5/26/2026 7:28:47 AM