We are positive on equities, seeing the correction as a buying opportunity. We like China and Hong Kong for their tech innovation and domestic demand story. We are positive on gold, targeting $5,500/oz, and see the USD weakening over the next 6-12 months.
We are positive on equities. We saw the correction as an opportunity to accumulate.
wti
The interviewee sees a compromise between the US and Iran as likely, and notes that traffic is returning to the Strait of Hormuz. This implies an expectation of easing supply constraints, which would be bearish for oil prices.
yields
The PM's commitment to not issue new bonds on a calendar basis is aimed at calming the bond market, suggesting yields may stabilize in the near term after recent highs.
We talked about the global risk-on rally, but the uncertainty with Iran is still there. Where do we go from here?
Shery Ahn
Vasu Menon
We have turned more positive on equities. We saw the correction as an opportunity to accumulate. Global equities are down 10% after the attack on Iran but have rebounded 16%.
The signs are there that the US and Iran will have to seek some kind of compromise. It may not be perfect, but it will be enough to steady the markets.
Regardless of the war in Iran, you still like Hong Kong and China. How much more potential is there in the tech sector?
Shery Ahn
Vasu Menon
There is potential in the technology and AI sector. Chinese and Hong Kong companies are catching up with major US hyperscalers. The gap is slowly narrowing. China is not just a domestic demand story, but also an innovation and technology story.
Valuations are not expensive. China has a lot of firepower: a strong balance sheet and a huge stockpile of oil and energy reserves.
Are there opportunities for Asia EM despite the pressure on the energy front?
Haidi Stroud-Watts
Vasu Menon
Asia ex-Japan within the EM space is actually outperforming on a regional basis compared to the US, Europe, and Japan. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is up more than 20% year-to-date.
If the situation in the Middle East improves and oil prices come off, Asia will be a big beneficiary. This will be positive for markets like Singapore as well.
Where do you stand on traditional safe haven assets like gold and the US dollar?
Shery Ahn
Vasu Menon
We are positive on gold. We think it could escalate to about $5,500 per ounce over the next 12 months from $4,500 now.
In the short term, gold faces headwinds from uncertainty over interest rates and inflation. However, we see the dollar weakening over the next 6-12 months as Middle East tensions ease, which will be positive for gold.
Vasu Menon
We think the dollar is likely to weaken over the next 6 to 12 months as tensions in the Middle East ease and markets become more risk-on. We see the dollar weakening against most major currencies, including Asian currencies.
Vasu Menon
Singapore is seeing a revival. The government is putting money into boosting the stock market. Valuations are not high, and dividend yields are attractive.
Corporate governance and capital market reforms will play out over the next 3-5 years.
Asks about the outlook for gold and the U.S. dollar.
Shery Ahn
Vasu Menon
We are positive on gold. We see it potentially escalating to $5,500/oz over the next 12 months. We think the dollar will weaken over the next 6-12 months as Middle East tensions ease.
Gold is treading water in the short term due to uncertainty around interest rates and inflation, but a weaker dollar will make gold more affordable.
Where do you stand on gold and the US dollar?
Shery Ahn
Vasu Menon
We are positive on gold. In the short term, it faces headwinds from interest rate uncertainty and inflation, but over the next 12 months, we see gold potentially escalating to $5,500/oz from $4,500/oz. We think the dollar is likely to weaken over the next 6-12 months as Middle East tensions ease and markets become more risk-on, which will be positive for gold.