Running a neutral portfolio due to high uncertainty from oil volatility, geopolitical risks, and hawkish Fed risk. Growth stocks most vulnerable to higher rates. European equities could rally if ceasefire holds, but investors are under-positioned. Skeptical on hyperscaler credit due to difficulty pricing risk. ECB likely done hiking after one-and-done.
implicit
implicit
RUT
implicit
Metals
USD
Invesco
8.5
Asset Manager $1000.00B
Alexandra Ivanova 8.0
Asset Manager $1000.00B
Alexandra Ivanova 8.0
6/29/2026 12:59:10 PM
ndx
She says growth stocks are most vulnerable to higher rates and semiconductors/hyperscalers may be overpriced if Fed is hawkish. She is neutral overall but tilted away from aggressive growth.
wti
She notes oil went up and down, and the ceasefire is fragile. Geopolitical risk could flare inflation risks again.
yields
She bought the front end when hikes were priced in, suggesting she sees rate risk. She says we may be too sanguine about rate risks.
Oil returning to pre-conflict levels removes risk of aggressive central bank hikes, a bullish catalyst. US labor market is finally turning softer after three strong payroll reports. Neutral on tech; Mag7 has gone nowhere in nine months. Fed rate hikes driven by growth upside are not negative for equities. European equities benefit from ECB's milder oil scenario.
implicit
explicit
explicit
Metals
USD
Deutsche Bank
8.5
Investment Bank $1338.00B
Henry Allen 7.0
Investment Bank $1338.00B
Henry Allen 7.0
6/29/2026 12:59:10 PM
ndx
We're neutral on tech. Mag7 has gone nowhere in nine months.
rut
Russell 2000 is doing pretty well among small caps.
wti
Risk is still to the upside, but $110 is very hard to imagine.
yields
He expects 50bps of Fed hikes this year, which would push yields higher, but notes this is driven by growth upside, not inflation shock.
AI capex is inflationary near-term via chip prices but disinflationary medium-term via productivity. Oil remains the key geopolitical inflation risk; recent de-escalation eased pressure but flare-ups could feed second-round effects. UK economy is not growing much, labor market soft, but lower oil improves consumer outlook. Fed focus on price stability is correct given above-target inflation; a rate hike is possible if second-round effects materialize.
implicit
NDX
RUT
implicit
Metals
USD
Royal London Asset Management
6.0
Asset Manager $230.00B
Melanie Baker 7.5
Asset Manager $230.00B
Melanie Baker 7.5
6/29/2026 12:59:10 PM
wti
Melanie says oil has fallen but we've been through an oil shock; she expects more volatility from the Strait of Hormuz and inventory rebuilding, and is not convinced oil will stay at current levels.
yields
She sees risk of second-round effects from oil feeding into wages and prices, which could push yields higher if central banks need to hike.
ECB is well-prepared for another inflation surge via scenario analysis; expects another 1-2 hikes this year due to geopolitical risks. Warsh faces a credibility test between being a mainstream central banker and loyalty to Trump. AI poses financial stability risks more in the US than Europe. ECB communication is settled; Warsh's reluctance to use forward guidance may increase volatility.
explicit
implicit
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
2.5
Other
Birgit Niessner 8.5
Other
Birgit Niessner 8.5
6/29/2026 12:59:10 PM
ndx
She says AI bubble is a US problem with exuberance in capital markets; if it bursts, it would hit US tech stocks. European exposure is limited.
wti
There will be more volatility coming from the Strait of Hormuz.
yields
I expect another hike this year, maybe even two.