Oil returning to pre-conflict levels removes risk of aggressive central bank hikes, a bullish catalyst. US labor market is finally turning softer after three strong payroll reports. Neutral on tech; Mag7 has gone nowhere in nine months. Fed rate hikes driven by growth upside are not negative for equities. European equities benefit from ECB's milder oil scenario.
implicit
explicit
explicit
Metals
USD
Deutsche Bank
8.5
Investment Bank $1338.00B
Henry Allen 7.0
Investment Bank $1338.00B
Henry Allen 7.0
6/29/2026 12:59:10 PM
ndx
We're neutral on tech. Mag7 has gone nowhere in nine months.
| 6/1/2026 2:40:43 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | -4.06% | -2.03% |
| 5/27/2026 1:11:50 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 12/8/2025 6:17:38 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -0.56% | -0.28% |
| 10/3/2025 2:55:16 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +3.37% | -1.69% |
rut
Russell 2000 is doing pretty well among small caps.
| 1/22/2026 2:20:31 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -2.00% | -2.00% |
wti
Risk is still to the upside, but $110 is very hard to imagine.
| 4/9/2026 12:44:27 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -5.47% | -5.47% |
| 4/8/2026 12:37:05 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -6.73% | +6.73% |
| 3/13/2026 12:22:23 AM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +20.22% | +10.11% |
yields
He expects 50bps of Fed hikes this year, which would push yields higher, but notes this is driven by growth upside, not inflation shock.
