Tech is at a turning point. The Iran war caused a sharp but short-lived selloff. Prior to that, growth/tech outperformed while financials underperformed. The rotation had gone far enough. Then earnings season delivered 25% growth, which is remarkable.

Consensus has high-teens growth for each of the remaining three quarters. That's the main reason to be constructive. Markets are up less than 10% YTD, which is not unusual. The midterm election pattern suggests buying protection, then a rally once the outcome is clear. 21 of the last 23 midterm elections saw positive Q4, averaging 7%.

Equity issuance bottomed in 2023 and is coming back, but as a proportion of market cap, it's not even at the historical average. Academic literature shows big issuance booms happen when markets are doing well and earnings look good. The next IPO is 0.12% of S&P market cap, which is not a major concern. Normal volatility is 3-5% pullbacks every 2-3 months.

Index inclusion issues might have a slightly bigger impact, but historically, the numbers don't suggest a significant negative effect.

Not that concerned. The 0.12% of market cap translates to about a 1% impact due to lumpiness, which is within normal volatility. The fear is there, but it hasn't happened historically. A new Fed chair is a potential source of volatility, as most have dealt with equity pullbacks early on.

Not that concerned. The impact is small. Historical data doesn't suggest it should be a problem. Other factors like a new Fed chair could be a source of volatility.