Israel feels excluded from the US-Iran deal, viewing it as a loss after sharing war risks. Netanyahu's camp sees it as a political liability. Israel worries the deal sells short war aims and may force future unilateral action.

Friday reopening is ambitious. Full normalization will take months due to safety checks, insurance, crew concerns, and repositioning of ships. Ships went 'dark' through the strait during conflict; open transit will be a key signal.

The MOU is only the beginning of a process. Sticking points include the ceasefire scope, frozen funds, and sanctions relief. The document will likely be a list of issues for discussion, not detailed points. Netanyahu emerges as the biggest loser.

Equity markets have already priced in the end of the war. Focus shifts to fundamentals and earnings. The next Trump focus may be AI export restrictions, which could challenge the assumption of global AI model availability and capex plans. Diversification remains key.

Even if the Strait opens Friday, full normalization takes months. The oil market faces a multi-year hangover: ~1 billion barrels of inventory to rebuild (boosting demand), a lasting geopolitical premium, and slowing US shale growth. Mid-cycle Brent price rises from $70 to ~$80/bbl.