Risk assets and AI focus after Iran deal (with Abeer Abu Omar)

3/27/2026 10:47:16 AM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+9.26%	+4.63%
3/20/2026 10:18:22 AM	short term up	7 days later	+16.74%	+16.74%

Asks whether the US-Iran deal is good news, bad news, or wait-and-see for risk assets.

Abeer Abu Omar

Mavash Ayub

Both parties prioritized reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which was causing economic pain. In the medium-long term, details of the MOU matter, including implications for Israel. Historically, such agreements take months/years. Short-term, the reopening is good news.

The longer-term issues around nuclear and sanctions are tabled over 60 days, which will likely be continuously rolled.

Asks what the Strait reopening means for risk assets.

Abeer Abu Omar

Mavash Ayub

Oil is substantially lower and equity markets have already rallied. Markets have been pricing in an end to the war. Friday may not cause much reaction. Focus will be on fundamentals and earnings going forward.

In the week prior, equity markets were very resilient despite volatility in anticipation of the deal.

Asks what Trump's next focus will be, suggesting AI export restrictions.

Abeer Abu Omar

Mavash Ayub

AI export restrictions are a key risk. There is an assumption that AI models will be available globally, underpinning capex plans. If that assumption is removed, it questions the huge AI investments. The equity rally has been very narrow around AI.

Anthropic's latest AI models being restricted to US nationals was announced Friday. If this becomes a sticking point, it challenges the investment thesis.

Asks about macro risks for the next 6-12 months.

Abeer Abu Omar

Mavash Ayub

Foreign policy under the current US administration will continue to cause volatility. If fundamentals and earnings are there, equity markets should be resilient. Diversification across countries, sectors, and asset classes is key.

Asks about monetary policy divergence this year.

Abeer Abu Omar

Mavash Ayub

There is more divergence in policy due to inconsistent inflationary pressures. Bank of England and ECB looking to hike, Fed likely to stay put. Rate cuts have been priced out. This divergence impacts currencies and needs to be accounted for in portfolios.

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