Argues the correction process is 'just getting started,' earnings estimates are too high and vulnerable to cuts, markets have a 'high bar,' and retail complacency suggests downside risk. No explicit 'down' call, but the reasoning points to near-term caution and potential for further decline.

Oil can move off of its highs if we see some de-escalation, but it's very unlikely that we return to the pre-conflict lows simply because there has been a lot of infrastructure kind of of damage and you're going to have more of a geopolitical risk premium that get kept in oil markets. The explicit statement rules out a return to prior lows, establishing a structurally higher floor. The direction is 'cautious up' relative to pre-conflict levels, not a near-term rally call from current spot.