Multi-asset view on uncertainty and positioning (with Carol Massar, Bailey Lipschultz)

Yields

NDX

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

Janus Henderson 7.8
Asset Manager $330.00B
Mike Contopoulos 8.5

Multi-asset view on uncertainty and positioning (with Carol Massar, Bailey Lipschultz)

wti

Contopoulos mentions war implications on oil prices and margins, and that higher oil prices from conflict could affect downstream earnings landscape - implying upward pressure on oil prices while conflict persists.

yields

If Fed cuts aggressively, bond vigilantes would push 10-year yields well north of 5% Contopoulos believes Fed shouldn't cut into inflationary environment, and any aggressive cutting would be punished by markets driving yields higher.

4/13/2026 11:00:20 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+4.46%	+4.46%
11/25/2025 10:11:27 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+2.45%	-1.23%
9/17/2025 6:17:31 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+0.61%	-0.61%
9/16/2025 6:36:48 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+1.25%	-1.25%
9/16/2025 2:05:10 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+1.25%	+0.63%
9/15/2025 8:39:17 PM	short term up	6 days later	+2.91%	+2.91%
8/7/2025 11:40:17 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-1.82%	+0.91%

Show all 7 yields results

Markets seem confused and directionless. What draws your attention?

Carol Massar
Mike Contopoulos

Market is confused because of tremendous uncertainty - waiting to see next political move, oil prices, inflation, earnings, and what it means for Fed action.

Investors are sitting on their hands. The VIX should probably be higher given the uncertainty.
Since end of February, S&P down 0.5%, Russell up 1%. What areas are better positioned given political uncertainty?

Bailey Lipschultz
Mike Contopoulos

Haven't changed positioning contours - still tilted cyclical, international markets, emerging markets ex-China, Japan, Europe, US industrials/energy/materials. Raised cash to 7% (from 2%) as buffer against uncertainty.

Macro signals haven't rolled over yet - estimate revisions, forward-looking indicators, employment haven't plummeted. If conflict resolves, January/February landscape re-emerges.
Fed expectations shifted from 2-3 cuts to maybe one next year. How quickly can you reposition?

Bailey Lipschultz
Mike Contopoulos

We were saying zero or one cut when market expected 2-3. Now see probability of hike. Fed shouldn't cut into inflationary environment heading toward 4%.

If Fed cuts aggressively, bond vigilantes would push 10-year yields well north of 5%, causing higher rates that ultimately slow growth and punish markets.
What about private credit concerns?

Carol Massar
Mike Contopoulos

Danger lies in funds that sold vehicles as somewhat liquid. Could see contagion where investors sell what they can in public markets to raise liquidity.

Prefers to stay on sidelines in corporate private credit, though infrastructure/hard-asset credit may have opportunities. Leveraged loan segment has excess.

SignalTube

markets at a glance