Professor Kam Harvey from Duke University provides an academic perspective on IPO valuation. He notes that IPOs are typically underpriced to ensure all shares go out, leading to a first-day pop that retail investors often miss. Historically, over three years, IPOs do not outperform the S&P 500. He argues that the explosive upside is already captured by pre-IPO investors, and retail buyers are buying at an expensive price with modest expected returns. He draws a distinction between today's tech leaders (willing to pivot) and the 1999 bubble (rigid), suggesting this time may be different.
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IPOs don't really outperform a passive investment like the S&P 500 over the longer term (three years). The price is expensive and expected returns are modest.

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