HSBC's Max Kettner on the market's strong 'buy' signals

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HSBC's Max Kettner on the market's strong 'buy' signals

dxy

Nothing protects you other than long cash and dollar... that will spell trouble indeed really for the entire asset spectrum except for the greenback.

1/30/2026 1:43:29 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+0.09%	-0.05%
11/7/2025 12:10:55 AM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-0.21%	+0.11%

ndx

Kettner believes positioning signals indicate low is in and it will be tough for equities to fall below recent low, suggesting upward bias for risk assets including equities.

yields

Kettner warns that hot CPI (0.4-0.5% core) could quickly bring yields back toward 4.5% danger zone level, implying upward pressure on yields if inflation surprises to upside.

Introduces Max Kettner, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at HSBC, and asks about signals for putting optimism to work.

speaker1
Max Kettner

Positioning data has now triggered first proper buy signal for broader risk asset spectrum since liberation day episode.

Higher frequency labor and consumption data has been solid, but positioning side kept us wary until last week when both systematic and discretionary positioning, particularly hedging, triggered contrarian bias signal.
Asks if Monday's closing low 6343 was the near-term low.

speaker1
Max Kettner

Very likely the low is in - tough for equities and credit spreads to fall below that level given current positioning data.

Evidence across hedging, skews, put-call ratios, surveys, investor intelligence, AI, and systematic positioning all show bearish sentiment has shifted.
Asks if runway is foamed for a hot CPI number.

speaker1
Max Kettner

Core CPI of 0.4% or 0.5% could quickly bring yields back into 'danger zone' that spells trouble for entire asset spectrum except dollar.

Two weeks ago yields were pushing toward 4.5% on 10-year, which is danger zone level where nothing works except long cash and dollar. Current rally in treasuries only provides 15 basis point margin of safety.

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