This Should Be A Market Collapse… Why Isn’t It?

3/10/2026 5:45:11 PM	long term up	61 days later	-5.42%	-5.42%
3/10/2026 5:32:23 PM	long term up	61 days later	-5.42%	-5.42%
1/20/2026 9:28:32 PM	long term up	61 days later	-16.50%	-16.50%
1/2/2026 9:36:55 PM	medium term up	21 days later	+24.33%	+24.33%
12/23/2025 11:20:27 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+8.96%	+8.96%
12/22/2025 3:05:49 PM	long term sharp up	62 days later	+17.06%	+25.59%
11/12/2025 11:46:28 AM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+4.56%	+2.28%
11/12/2025 9:22:53 AM	long term sharp up	60 days later	+27.68%	+41.52%

3/9/2026 9:00:51 AM	short term down	6 days later	-1.21%	+1.21%
1/2/2026 9:36:55 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+1.52%	-0.76%
12/12/2025 10:13:25 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+1.57%	-0.79%
12/8/2025 10:28:17 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.56%	+0.28%
11/12/2025 9:22:53 AM	short term up	5 days later	-1.96%	-1.96%
11/10/2025 1:58:05 PM	short term up	6 days later	-2.87%	-2.87%
10/27/2025 1:01:15 PM	short term up	6 days later	-0.15%	-0.15%
9/19/2025 1:42:29 AM	short term sharp up	7 days later	-0.60%	-0.91%
9/11/2025 10:44:08 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+3.32%	+4.98%
9/9/2025 5:01:26 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+3.48%	+3.48%
8/25/2025 2:53:09 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+3.27%	+3.27%

4/13/2026 1:50:50 PM	short term up	6 days later	-1.83%	-1.83%
3/18/2026 6:56:53 PM	short term up	5 days later	-3.94%	-3.94%
3/9/2026 9:00:51 AM	short term sharp up	6 days later	+12.04%	+18.06%

3/9/2026 9:00:51 AM	short term up	6 days later	+2.03%	+2.03%
12/23/2025 11:20:27 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+0.85%	+0.85%
12/8/2025 2:52:48 PM	short term up	6 days later	-0.10%	-0.10%
12/8/2025 10:28:17 AM	short term up	6 days later	-0.10%	-0.10%
11/12/2025 11:46:28 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-1.34%	+0.67%
10/27/2025 1:01:15 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+3.77%	-1.88%

Asks if the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has changed Yardeni's perspective that the S&P had already bottomed.

David

Ed Yardeni

Still thinks the market bottomed on March 30th. Geopolitical crises are buying opportunities; the market discounts that oil will get out one way or another, similar to the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.

Cites Pearl Harbor/Midway analogy: market bottomed early in WWII despite much war remaining. Notes Trump's contradictory statements make day-to-day investing impossible.

Asks if Yardeni maintains his 7700 S&P 500 year-end call.

David

Ed Yardeni

Maintains 7700 S&P 500 target based on $310 EPS this year and $350 next year. Industry analysts are even more bullish, expecting $320 and $370 respectively.

Companies reported great Q4 earnings and Q1 earnings are expected up at least 12%. Analysts are getting guidance from companies, not just headlines.

Asks about the disconnect between optimistic corporate earnings calls and declining NFIB small business optimism.

David

Ed Yardeni

Doesn't put much weight on the NFIB optimism index; prefers their labor market indicators (hiring plans). His own small business is doing great despite geopolitical pessimism.

Asks if the 7700 call is predicated on oil coming down, or if earnings can remain positive with $100 WTI.

David

Ed Yardeni

US economy can handle $100 oil. The economy is much less energy-intensive than the 1970s, more services and digital. Resilience is his theme for the 'Roaring 2020s'.

The economy has absorbed many shocks and will continue to grow without recession, supporting resilient earnings and a bullish stock market.

Asks Yardeni to walk through his three-stage framework for how an oil supply shock moves through bond yield curves.

David

Ed Yardeni

Clarifies it's not a rigid framework but a descriptive way to think about how the economy responds to different oil price levels. $100-125: economy absorbs, Fed does nothing. $125-150: growth fears emerge. Above $150: demand destruction, Fed turns dovish.

It's hypothetical, not an econometric model. Should have been called 'scenario one, two, three'.

Asks why Yardeni lowered his recession odds from 35% to 20%.

David

Ed Yardeni

Lowered recession odds because the market made a low on March 30th, bearish sentiment was extreme (bull/bear ratio near 1), and a policy response (ceasefire) emerged. Trump signaled he wants to exit the conflict.

Extreme bearishness from a contrarian perspective suggested a policy response was coming. The spike in oil above $125 became less likely.

Asks what assumptions very bearish observers are making that Yardeni disagrees with.

David

Ed Yardeni

His base case is 'Roaring 2020s' (60% probability), with 20% for a melt-up and 20% for downside risks (1970s-style stagflation or 1930s-style geopolitical deterioration). He admits he should have seen the war coming.

Inflation may be stickier than markets think. He's surprised bond yields haven't risen more but thinks they still could. Productivity is a powerful offset to inflationary pressures.

Asks to what extent higher oil prices translate to higher consumer goods, given the economy is less oil-dependent than the 1970s.

David

Ed Yardeni

Doesn't know the exact pass-through. The current situation lacks the supply chain disruptions of 2022 but has the tariff effect. This inflation spike may be more modest and shorter-lived, but he's staying nimble because there's too much consensus that 'this too shall pass'.

Productivity improvements in the 'Roaring 2020s' scenario could keep inflation down. The bond market seems aligned with that view.

Asks if the 'bond vigilantes' (a term Yardeni coined) are back, noting the 2-year yield rose 50bp in a month.

David

Ed Yardeni

Bond vigilantes are active in the 2-year note, but not in longer-term bonds. He expects the 10-year yield to reach 4.75% on inflation concerns, which would be a buying opportunity. The US bond market has been quiet; the real action is in Japan and the UK.

The world is wealthier, leading to natural rebalancing into bonds and gold. Safe-haven demand for US bonds persists.

Asks why gold didn't move up on the Iran war, and for Yardeni's gold outlook.

David

Ed Yardeni

Gold didn't rally because Turkey sold gold to prop up its currency. Long-term, gold is a good diversifier. If the S&P reaches 10,000 by 2029, gold could reach $10,000 on rebalancing flows.

Chinese investors are natural buyers after getting hurt in real estate and stocks. Indian buyers are always there. The excitement has worn off but could return.

Asks if gold has replaced or will replace bonds in portfolios.

David

Ed Yardeni

People who had no gold now have 5-20% as an alternative to bonds. But there's still lots of demand for US bonds.

Asks if rising US debt and deficit is putting pressure on Treasury demand, citing an article about weaker auction demand.

David

Ed Yardeni

The bond vigilantes last caused problems in 2023 when yields went from 4% to 5%. But Treasury Secretary Yellen then shifted issuance to T-bills, calming the market. The bond market has many players; vigilantes don't always call the shots.

If yields reach 4.75%, buyers will likely step in, just as they did at 5% in 2023. He'll worry about a debt crisis when the bond market worries.

Asks if he would be overweight bonds or equities this year.

David

Ed Yardeni

Equities.

Asks if Yardeni ended his 15-year overweight on big tech in December.

David

Ed Yardeni

Yes, ended overweight on big tech and the US vs. world. Went underweight Magnificent 7 at P/E 32, then back to market weight when P/E fell to 25. The market was broadening out to the S&P 493 and going global.

Tech and communication services were 46% of S&P 500 market cap; it didn't make sense to overweight them further. The 'go global' trade is back in fashion and he's staying with it.

Asks if Yardeni is shifting his US vs. world view given Asia's dependence on Strait of Hormuz oil.

David

Ed Yardeni

Was thinking about it, but the market decided to go back into the 'go global' trade (Korea, Taiwan V-shaped recovery). He's staying with it. He prefers long-term convictions over short-term trading calls.

Asks what data to focus on this week.

David

Ed Yardeni

PPI on Tuesday will show how the war affected March inflation. Energy and transportation components will be up. The shocker could be how quickly companies pass through costs, as they did in 2022.

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