Bloomberg Surveillance 11/25/2025

explicit

inferred

implicit

AI cautious down

Academy Securities 6.2
Government Agency
Peter Tchir 8.0

ndx

My favorite trade right now is to be underweight Nasdaq 100 Expectation of AI investment slowdown and rotation to other sectors

11/18/2025 5:58:30 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.95%	-0.95%
11/11/2025 6:02:32 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-2.81%	+1.41%

yields

I can see us down 3% on Fed funds and it could still see the 10 year close to 4% Concern about inflation persistence despite Fed cuts

Why are you negative on the economy given recent Fed signals about rate cuts?

Lisa
Peter Tchir

We're seeing the end of free money and companies questioning AI spending after initial euphoria

Previously any AI spending announcement boosted stocks, now companies are being selective about technology and value
Peter Tchir

Belt-tightening happening everywhere - companies will shrink budgets rather than grow full scale

Seeing less liquidity across markets including crypto and digital assets
Peter Tchir

If AI slows down without other economic sectors picking up, we'll see potential slowdown if not recession

Already seeing wealth destruction in crypto and disruptive stocks like ARKK
Peter Tchir

My favorite trade is underweight Nasdaq and like S&P 500 equal weight for rebalancing away from AI concentration

Expect some air to leak out of AI and transfer to rest of economy including manufacturing and infrastructure
Peter Tchir

Stuck on belly of curve 5-7 years, see 10-year yields staying around 4% even with Fed funds at 3%

Nervous about inflation and potential for Fed cutting too much
Peter Tchir

Expect Fed to get to 3% by middle of summer regardless of December cut timing

Spending less attention to daily Fed speakers, focused on direction rather than timing