Dan Skelly sees fundamental risks emerging in the crowded AI/semiconductor trade (pricing wars, declining GPU rentals, Microsoft's shift to lower-cost models). He expects this leadership to roll over, enabling a rotation into regional banks, healthcare, and cyclicals. He calls the economy 'unremarkable'—inflation-resistant and able to shrug off policy shocks—and argues the Fed's repricing doesn't change the outlook. Diversification is key for long-term compounding.
implicit
implicit
Oil
Metals
implicit
AI mega-cap stocks (index/leadership) cautious down
Morgan Stanley
9.0
Investment Bank $1600.00B
Dan Skelly 6.0
Investment Bank $1600.00B
Dan Skelly 6.0
6/24/2026 12:48:22 AM
dxy
With the economy inflation-resistant and the Fed on hold, the dollar is likely to trade in a narrow range without a clear directional catalyst.
ndx
Skelly sees fundamental risks in AI/semiconductor leaders (pricing wars, declining GPU rentals, Microsoft shift) and expects that trade to roll over, implying near-term downside for NDX.
rut
We've been particularly keen on rotation into some of the regional banks, rotation into healthcare, and even some of the short cycle industrial and cyclical names.
| 5/27/2026 1:06:05 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -0.63% | -0.32% |
| 5/15/2026 1:33:06 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +3.39% | -1.70% |
| 4/24/2026 5:10:00 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.47% | -0.47% |
| 1/23/2026 7:06:10 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.49% | -0.49% |
| 11/22/2025 1:57:04 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | +4.82% | +4.82% |
yields
Skelly says the Fed repricing (fewer cuts) doesn't change the outlook and a hike is unlikely, suggesting yields remain rangebound near current levels.
