Venezuela intervention and geopolitical risks (with Katie Greifeld, Romaine Bostick)

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NDX

RUT

explicit

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Council on Foreign Relations 6.0
Policy Institute
Richard Haass 8.5

Venezuela intervention and geopolitical risks (with Katie Greifeld, Romaine Bostick)

wti

Optimism is overdone... It'll take time and money to get oil production up in a market that at the moment is not desperate for more oil, which by the way would add further downward pressure on prices.

3 calls

+16

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

Asks how Delcy Rodriguez will work with the US and about Venezuela's oil potential.

Katie Greifeld
Richard Haass

This is leadership change, not regime change. The deal is access to oil in exchange for leaving most powers in place. Question is if the deal holds.

Notes potential pushback from opposition and armed groups.
Asks if Venezuela's oil output can return to 1970s peaks.

Katie Greifeld
Richard Haass

Optimism is overdone. Oil is heavy, infrastructure is in disrepair, and the market isn't desperate for more oil. Output may go from 1 to 1.5-2 million barrels, not a game-changer.

Notes oil at $60 is revealing.
Asks about regional stability and neighboring country reactions.

Romaine Bostick
Richard Haass

The administration must decide if Venezuela is a one-off. If they feel momentum and turn sights elsewhere (e.g., Greenland), they will overreach and trigger a reaction, damaging NATO cohesion.
Asks about the 'Pottery Barn rule' and US responsibility.

Romaine Bostick
Richard Haass

The administration is limiting itself to a change at the top to avoid triggering civil war. The deal is oil access for continuity.
Asks if Russia was involved in the US decision.

Romaine Bostick
Richard Haass

Russia is slightly unhappy, but Putin may feel vindicated seeing the US use force to remove an 'illegitimate' leader in its backyard, which works for him regarding Ukraine.

China is also happy to see the US more involved and potentially overextended.

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