There is not a junkier index out there than the Russell 2000... this is going to the casino... tells you how speculative and to a large extent, how junky this rally is. His characterization of the index as 'junky' and the rally as driven by speculation on unprofitable companies implies a negative view on its sustainability and a likely correction.

Rosenberg's core thesis is that inflation will be a 'downside surprise through 2026' due to peaking tariffs, shelter disinflation, and falling food prices. This implies lower inflation expectations and, consequently, downward pressure on yields over the medium term. He explicitly states he thinks the Fed will cut rates, but they are 'on hold' for now.