Oil Market Geopolitical Analysis (with Avril Hong, Haidi Stroud-Watts)

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Jorge Leon 7.5

Oil Market Geopolitical Analysis (with Avril Hong, Haidi Stroud-Watts)

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If we are looking into a scenario where there continues in longer disruptions of the strait of Hormuz for more than a few days towards a week or month, then we've definitely seen a scenario possible of $100 per barrel. Conditional forecast based on duration of geopolitical disruption to key chokepoint.

6 calls

+18

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

1/5/2026 6:39:52 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+4.15%	-2.07%

Asks if oil appropriately priced for strikes and risk of Hormuz closure.

Avril Hong
Jorge Leon

Surprised by price reaction; expected Brent above $85-$90. Price is ~$80, a 10% increase, but already up 30% in months prior.

Key is Strait of Hormuz. Traffic is halted. 15 million bpd flows through it.
Asks if formal Hormuz closure means $100+ oil.

Avril Hong
Jorge Leon

If disruption lasts more than a few days/weeks, $100 per barrel scenario is possible.

Notes bypass pipelines (Saudi, UAE) can't offset full 15 million bpd. Global oversupply provides some limit.
Asks if OPEC+ can cushion the impact.

Haidi Stroud-Watts
Jorge Leon

Not many levers for OPEC+. Most additional barrels need to pass through Hormuz, limiting impact of hikes.

Even if de-escalation happens, reopening Hormuz will take days/weeks.
Asks about US SPR use.

Avril Hong
Jorge Leon

SPR is a lever for extended crisis. This is a textbook energy crisis, justifying its use.

US has 415 million barrels, less than pre-Ukraine war.

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