This could be a frozen conflict lasting years, with no real transit security through the Strait of Hormuz. We are looking at 10+ weeks for flow resumption, leading to dangerous inventory draws and second-order inflationary effects. The US and Iran are far apart on demands. Even in a best-case rapid resolution, infrastructure damage (e.g., Ras Laffan LNG) will take 3-5 years to restore. Oil production restart in Kuwait/Iraq could take 3-4 months. GCC states will be cautious about resuming exports. Pipelines will see more investment. US shale cannot replace global spare capacity. Russia benefits but cannot become a spare capacity holder.
Iran can handle economic pressure for some time. Trump may make a deal that leaves many issues unresolved. The US is not in a position to be a producer of spare capacity.
