Remain long equities. Higher yields are a sideshow; the real story is earnings inflecting higher from a high base—a rare signal seen only post-recessions. The market has priced in a hawkish Fed; being more bearish requires an extreme view. US consumption is driven by the top 20%, who are insulated. IPO supply is a red herring; liquidity is abundant. The next trade is to rotate into lagging cyclicals like transports and homebuilders.
explicit
implicit
RUT
implicit
Metals
USD
HSBC
8.0
Investment Bank $1686.00B
Max Kettner 8.5
Investment Bank $1686.00B
Max Kettner 8.5
5/20/2026 8:07:16 PM
yields
From here onwards... front-end rate expectations in three years are close to 4%... effectively pricing 1.5 hikes... to be even more concerned you'd have to be a heck of a lot more hawkish.
| 4/30/2026 1:53:48 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.25% |
| 4/16/2026 11:57:34 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +3.44% | +1.72% |
| 3/16/2026 9:34:52 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +3.14% | +1.57% |
| 3/11/2026 1:03:49 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.08% | +0.54% |
| 2/19/2026 6:16:02 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.93% | -0.47% |
| 1/30/2026 1:43:29 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -5.75% | -5.75% |
| 12/22/2025 2:42:18 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.43% | +0.43% |
| 12/6/2025 1:57:50 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -1.34% | -1.34% |
| 8/29/2025 2:18:19 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +2.70% |
