We're managing a lot of noise. Initial conditions were strong economy, fiscal stimulus, inflation coming down. Consumer can absorb higher energy prices near-term. Key question is duration and tipping point.

We are in a period of negotiated escalation. Expect amplification of bombings as part of end-game settlement process.

Market pricing finds the midpoint of a probability distribution. There's a left tail (things go badly) and right tail (things get better). Markets may not fully account for left tail, but tails are far apart meaning more volatility.

Second and third order effects: raw materials, agriculture, fertilizer, food, PVC pipes, used car prices going up. Inflation conversation is more like 2022.

GDP growth expectations must be lower. Market is discounting earnings growth around 10-11%.

Midterms will be tough due to gas prices, but ultimate question is choice between nuclear-armed Iran or taking pain now.

Value opportunities in value sector dividends, quality and defensive sectors. Healthcare benefits most from AI long-term. Technology, AI and defense-related will see exceptional growth.