China is overly reliant on exports, domestic retail sales and consumer confidence are weak. AI strength is not translating into profits in China. China's weight in the EM index has halved since 2020, while Korea and Taiwan have doubled due to AI chip demand.
Earnings estimates are surging in Korea and Taiwan, concentrated on three chipmakers. The world's largest single-stock leveraged ETF is now based on SK Hynix ($10B), double any other, indicating elevated expectations that could lead to disappointment.