Kaplan says new Fed chair Warsh dropped forward guidance, causing markets to pull forward rate-hike expectations. If inflation doesn't cool by September, the Fed will likely act, and moves tend to come in sequences. Long-end yields are increasingly driven by supply/demand and deficits, not just Fed policy. He urges caution on over-interpreting the dot plot given the Iran deal was signed after dots were submitted.
implicit
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RUT
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Metals
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Goldman Sachs
9.0
Investment Bank $2500.00B
Rob Kaplan 8.5
Investment Bank $2500.00B
Rob Kaplan 8.5
6/18/2026 9:30:40 AM
dxy
Kaplan does not directly address the dollar, but his cautious stance on rate hikes and focus on deficits suggests limited near-term dollar strength.
ndx
Kaplan describes a tension between an inflationary infrastructure/AI capex boom and a disinflationary AI adoption boom, suggesting uncertainty and volatility for tech-heavy indices.
wti
Kaplan references the war ending and the Strait being reopened as a disinflationary factor, implying downward pressure on oil prices.
yields
Kaplan says if inflation doesn't cool by September, the Fed will likely act, and moves come in sequences, implying short-end yields will rise. He also notes long-end yields are driven by supply/demand and deficits, which could push them higher.
