Consumer resilience, AI dominance, and Fed policy (with Matt Miller)

The market is a single-factor AI model where macro is just noise. Consumer fragility and hawkish Fed chatter are being completely ignored. The AI earnings narrative is deemed macro-agnostic, rendering traditional diversification futile and concentrating risk. The only thing that can break this market is a crack in the AI story itself. Rate policy is a sideshow unless the Fed is forced into a much more aggressive hiking posture than currently priced.

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Principal 7.8
Asset Manager $880.00B
Seema Shah 8.5

Consumer resilience, AI dominance, and Fed policy (with Matt Miller)

ndx

The equity market has completely brushed off concerns... it's all about AI earnings... AI is an area that can hopefully continue to do well even if the conflict gets worse.

3/19/2026 6:22:02 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+1.11%	+0.55%
9/9/2025 2:41:59 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+3.48%	+3.48%
8/26/2025 2:40:28 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+3.01%	-1.50%

Matt Miller

Notes record low consumer confidence and higher gas prices hitting retailer outlooks; asks about the US consumer.
Seema Shah

Consumer resilience has held up so far, but there is only so much resilience; if gas prices continue to rise, consumers will become more intentional with spending.
Matt Miller

Asks if anything matters outside of AI demand given the eight-week winning streak.
Seema Shah

The equity market has completely brushed off concerns about the conflict, consumer confidence, and inflation expectations; it's all about AI earnings, which are macro-agnostic and can continue even if the conflict worsens.
Matt Miller

Asks about concentration risk given S&P vs equal weight outperformance.
Seema Shah

Diversification is very difficult when AI is part of so many sectors; Europe was the key diversifier last year but is now exposed to the conflict; China is less exposed and still liked, but finding other diversifiers is challenging.
Matt Miller

Asks how much rates matter given Chris Waller's hawkish comments and Kevin Warsh being sworn in.
Seema Shah

The rate story is important but secondary to AI earnings; a shift to rate hikes due to inflation expectations could change the story slightly, but probably not for tech unless hikes are very steep.
Matt Miller

Asks if there will be a broadening out of index performance given earnings margin expansion across seven of 11 S&P sectors.
Seema Shah

There has been impressive performance across the board; if earnings continue and oil prices cooperate, there should be a broadening out over time, but tech is likely to remain the lead performer.

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