Oil market outlook amid surplus concerns (with Yvonne Man, Annabel Jewelers)

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Vanda Insights 1.0
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Vandana Hari 7.0

Oil market outlook amid surplus concerns (with Yvonne Man, Annabel Jewelers)

wti

Base case remains a slight surplus of course through this quarter and going into next quarter Seasonal low demand, OPEC+ production increases, and potential Russian supply coming to market despite sanctions create downward pressure

Oil prices dropping on signs of surplus in global markets - what's your outlook

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Vandana Hari

Market undecided between Russian disruption concerns and ample supply narrative - Q4 and Q1 are seasonally low demand periods

OPEC+ group of eight members increased production significantly in Q3, continuing at slower pace through Q4
Vandana Hari

Extent of oversupply uncertain - estimates range from 3-4 million barrels per day to more normal seasonal surplus of about 1 million barrels
Vandana Hari

Russian supply disruption hard to estimate - Indian refiners cutting back Russian imports substantially, Chinese refiners less so

US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil could be game changer, Brazil stepping back from Russian diesel imports
Vandana Hari

Base case remains slight surplus through this quarter and into next - forward curve flirting with contango but not deep contango

Shipping market not supporting storing oil on water

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