Vietnam Economy & Trade (with Doug Krisner)

Vietnam's economy is growing fast (industrial production +9.1%, retail sales +11% in first 5 months) but faces inflation above 5% in May, exceeding the government target. The government maintains its 10% growth target despite energy cost headwinds. US trade tensions are rising with three Section 301 investigations, while Vietnam balances relations with China on infrastructure projects.

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RUT

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Metals

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Bloomberg 7.0
Financial Media
Francesca Stevens 6.5

Vietnam Economy & Trade (with Doug Krisner)

dxy

Vietnam's trade surplus with US and rising US trade tensions could support USD strength. Additionally, if Fed hikes as Harrison expects, DXY would likely strengthen.

wti

Iran war impacts and Middle East uncertainty are feeding into higher energy costs across the region, impacting Vietnam and other economies. The Strait of Hormuz situation adds upward pressure.

Doug Krisner

Asks how the Vietnamese government views the growth numbers and whether it's trying to shape economic growth.
Francesca Stevens

Key question is how far off the 10% growth target Vietnam is. Last quarter was just under 8%. Anything around 8% would still be good given Iran war impacts on energy costs. No sign of government softening on the double-digit target.
Doug Krisner

Asks about digital transformation and green energy in Vietnam's growth story.
Francesca Stevens

Green transition is important as Vietnam is on the front line of climate change. Government pushing renewable energy but faces grid complexity, EVN relations with renewable companies, and historic feed-in tariff issues. Solar is growing (industrial parks installing rooftop systems), offshore wind faces implementation challenges, LNG infrastructure isn't ready yet.
Doug Krisner

Asks about the current state of US-Vietnam trade relations.
Francesca Stevens

No final trade agreement yet despite a framework last October. Vietnam now faces three Section 301 investigations: excess manufacturing capacity, forced labor, and IP violations. Vietnam was the only country named as a priority foreign country in the most recent report.
Doug Krisner

Asks how Vietnam is viewed by the investment community and the diversity of opinions.
Francesca Stevens

Overall optimism around Vietnam market. FTSE Russell upgrade to emerging market status in September is one step, but MSCI upgrade is the bigger goal. MSCI review last week didn't put Vietnam on watch list due to low free float levels, foreign ownership limits, transparency concerns, and absence of offshore currency market.

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