Stocks Head for First 2026 Drop; Trump Says Venezuela Will Give Oil to US | Bloomberg Brief 1/7/2026

Yields up , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX cautious up , medium term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT cautious down

Oil cautious down , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

Metals cautious down , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

USD cautious down , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

State Street Corporation 7.0
Commercial Bank $4000.00B
Kayla Seder 9.0

Stocks Head for First 2026 Drop; Trump Says Venezuela Will Give Oil to US | Bloomberg Brief 1/7/2026

dxy

I still think we're in a case for a dollar weakness this year... monetary policy expectations would really put a backstop to any dollar strength because it really supports dollar weakness on a relative perspective here.

3 calls

+2

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

ndx

Seder states risk assets can outperform even if Fed doesn't cut as much as expected, as long as next move is a cut and not a hike. She points to positive tailwinds (Fed easing, strong growth, balance sheets) countering geopolitical concerns. While not naming NDX specifically, her bullish risk asset view implicitly supports equity indices like NDX.

yields

A ruling against Trump would increase bill issuance... yields across the curve would rise, but yields at the front end of the curve would rise even more.

8 calls

+1

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

12/22/2025 6:31:04 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.43%	+0.22%
9/30/2025 9:58:10 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+1.36%	+0.68%
8/22/2025 8:05:01 PM	short term cautious down	8 days later	+0.05%	-0.02%

Show all 3 yields results

Asks if clients are concerned enough about geopolitical situation to move risk off.

Vonnie Quinn
Kayla Seder

Geopolitics is a concern but counterbalanced by Fed easing expectations, strong positioning in high-quality parts of market, strong balance sheets, and rising US growth.

There's a lot of tailwinds for markets right now.
Asks if data might come in better than expected, reducing need for Fed reaction.

Vonnie Quinn
Kayla Seder

Most important is anchored inflation expectations and market faith that next Fed move is a cut, not a hike.

Even if Fed doesn't cut as much as expected, risk assets can do okay if data is strong but not strong enough to provoke hikes. The bar for a cut is rising but doesn't mean ready for hikes yet.
Asks where smart money is going given ample liquidity, low credit risk, and double-digit earnings expectations.

Vonnie Quinn
Kayla Seder

Positioning still concentrated in tech; sees opportunity in software (neutral positioning allows for increased exposure). Outside tech, sees interest in pharmaceuticals and energy infrastructure companies (not producers).
Asks if potential Supreme Court ruling against Trump tariffs would change the math.

Vonnie Quinn
Kayla Seder

Tariff theme will not go away regardless of ruling. A ruling against Trump would increase bill issuance, likely flattening the Treasury curve (yields rise, front-end rises more).
Asks about dollar outlook, noting it's against consensus.

Vonnie Quinn
Kayla Seder

Maintains case for dollar weakness this year due to expectations that other central banks (RBA, ECB, BOC) will hike while Fed and BOE ease.

Institutional investor data shows no appetite for dollar, with selling against almost all G10 currencies entering the year.
Asks if a different Fed chair (more aligned with administration's strong dollar policy) would change outlook.

Vonnie Quinn
Kayla Seder

Next chair likely to continue dovish; hard to have strong dollar if Fed eases policy. Data is most important; if inflation reaccelerates due to strong growth/stimulative tax cuts, outlook would shift.

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