Trump Signs Australia Minerals Deal | Balance of Power 10/20/2025

10/20/2025 9:50:44 PM	short term sharp down	6 days later	+6.04%	-9.05%
8/15/2025 10:37:13 PM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+2.18%	+1.09%

We're lucky to say we're joined now by Bob McNally, founder and president of the Rapidan Energy Group and former special assistant and senior director for international energy on the National Security Council under President George W Bush. Bob, thanks so much for being here. And we're lucky to have your expertise on a day like today because there have been these long held predictions that the surging production is going to push the market into a surplus. From your view, where are we at right now? Are we at some sort of tipping point?

Joe Matthew

Bob McNally

Great to be with you, Kayley. We are like a bunch of folks at the beach who've been hearing on the radio that a tsunami is coming but kind of questioning if it's coming or not. Now Rapidan is predicting or forecasting a tsunami for quite a while and we're starting to see it on the horizon. It's a good news story for consumers whereas a tsunami is a bad news story for bathers. We're about to cross through $3 a gallon and by some metrics we already have according to GasBuddy. You know if you think about it, President Trump never was above $3 a gallon in his first term. We got close. So he enjoyed a $2 pump price in his term. The White House is just overjoyed because whether they deserve it or not a sitting president gets the blame when gasoline prices go up and gets the congratulations and the benefit when they go down. Barring a geopolitical disruption, my colleagues and I at Rapidan think gasoline prices are more likely headed down further into that $2 range on a national average.

Bob, looking at your note to clients predicting daily prints in the forties by early next year when it comes to crude oil, you just mentioned where we're going in terms of gasoline. You know as Tyler mentioned a moment ago we're looking at increased production levels but this isn't because of drill baby drill, right? This is because of many other outside factors.

Joe Matthew

Bob McNally

You're right. We are quite bearish in the near term but in the medium term this market is going to tighten up. Near term we've got supply growth running three times faster than demand growth. That's partly a US story but also Argentina, Brazil, Guyana. Near term we have a glut. We're telling clients prepare for this. Consumers enjoy it. We're going to go down but in the coming years we're going to go much higher into a tightening market. Politics are about tomorrow and tomorrow is likely to see a deluge of oil. To stop crude prices falling in the forties either OPEC+ has to cut production or President Trump has to follow through with restricting Russian or Iranian oil exports with tough sanctions instead of weak sanctions. If neither happens it's the US shale sector that will take it on the chin leading to a 2020 echo where prices fall further to shut in shale wells and that's not a happy story. President Trump didn't enjoy 2020. Gasoline was $1.70 a gallon. The president was unhappy because US production shut down over 2 million barrels a day in a few months.

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