Bearish macro view, denial of reality (with Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Amarie Hordern)

George Goncalves warns of bubble-like conditions in tech, comparing to 2000, with NDX at risk of serious disappointment. Oil prices (WTI) are a key concern, with long-dated Brent near $90, signaling supply denial and a growth drag. Yields are rising due to fiscal concerns and central bank wait-and-see; 5% on 30-year is a line in the sand. Curve steepener is the best macro expression but hard to hold.

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George Goncalves 7.5

Bearish macro view, denial of reality (with Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Amarie Hordern)

ndx

Broader financial markets have overshot again and are at risk of serious disappointment... it's all about the tech sector within the equity market... bubble-like conditions repeating.

1 calls

-3

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

2/20/2026 7:02:30 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+1.15%	-0.57%

wti

The front and center is the oil price... long-dated oil contract reaching almost $90 on Brent crude for December.

yields

Yields are higher for a number of different reasons... capturing a longer kind of wait and see mode for central banks... fiscal concerns.

3 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

2/20/2026 7:02:30 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+4.74%	-2.37%
12/11/2025 1:47:48 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-0.17%	+0.08%

George Goncalves

Broader financial markets have overshot again and are at risk of serious disappointment.
George Goncalves

Earnings really do have to deliver today. You have a lot of optimism already priced in.
George Goncalves

The similarities to 2000 are a concentrated view, euphoria around new technology like AI, meme stock-like investing – bubble-like conditions repeating.
George Goncalves

The market structure has changed with passive flow. The jobs market is the most critical component.
George Goncalves

The front and center is the oil price. The biggest denial is that we can turn on and get production back to replace depleted inventory. It will be a rude awakening and a drag on growth in the second half.
George Goncalves

Yields are higher for a number of different reasons – a pure macro expression, capturing a longer wait-and-see mode for central banks, global rate connection, and fiscal concerns.
George Goncalves

5% on the 30-year is a line in the sand. If that breaks, you get above 4.50% on the 10-year. If the 2-year goes back to 4%, the broader stock market would care.
George Goncalves

The best macro expression is the curve steepener, but it's the hardest trade to keep in place.

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