Trilateral agreement reflects the importance of North America as a region. Despite complex geopolitical and security agendas, building up the North American economic region makes sense. However, we have never been as close to losing that opportunity in the past 30 years. USMCA is not perfect but works, and intra-regional trade has evolved favorably.
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Mexico
6.0
Government Agency
Geronimo Gutierrez Fernandez 7.5
Government Agency
Geronimo Gutierrez Fernandez 7.5
6/28/2026 5:00:30 PM
dxy
No direct mention of USD, but trade stability supports currency stability.
metals
No direct mention of metals.
ndx
No direct mention of Nasdaq, but integrated supply chains benefit tech indirectly.
rut
Small caps benefit from North American trade stability and increased investment flows.
wti
Energy mentioned as a sector but no directional view.
yields
No direct mention of yields, but trade stability supports stable interest rate expectations.
The USMCA deal stays in place even if not renewed by July 1; modifications are likely and Canada can work with USTR requests. The agreement is the foundation of integrated North American trade, covering IP, agriculture, services, and customs. If it goes away, none are bound by those rules, making implications enormous.
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inferred
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Canada
7.0
Other
Kirsten Hillman 7.5
Other
Kirsten Hillman 7.5
6/28/2026 5:00:30 PM
dxy
No direct mention of USD, but trade stability supports currency stability.
metals
No direct mention of metals.
ndx
No direct mention of Nasdaq, but trade stability supports tech supply chains indirectly.
rut
Small caps benefit from North American trade stability and reduced tariff uncertainty.
wti
Energy mentioned as a sector involved but no directional view expressed.
yields
No direct mention of yields, but the stability of the USMCA framework suggests no major disruption to bond markets in the medium term.
President Trump has always been skeptical of USMCA but appreciates the North American trading system. The administration wants aggressive changes to auto rules of origin with domestic content requirements and exclusion of Chinese components. This is a zero-sum game for the auto industry. The sunset provision was designed to avoid being stuck with a bad deal for 25 years.
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inferred
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inferred
2.5
Other
Kelly Ann Shaw 8.0
Other
Kelly Ann Shaw 8.0
6/28/2026 5:00:30 PM
dxy
No direct mention of USD.
metals
No direct mention of metals.
ndx
No direct mention of Nasdaq, but auto supply chain changes could impact tech indirectly.
rut
Small caps could benefit from reshoring and domestic content requirements in auto industry.
wti
No direct mention of oil.
yields
No direct mention of yields, but trade policy uncertainty could keep yields rangebound.