Canadian perspective on USMCA renewal (with David Westin)

What is the chance we end up with no deal on USMCA?

David Westin

Kirsten Hillman

There is a deal; even if not renewed by July 1, it stays in place while modifications are negotiated. Chances of the deal staying in place are very high, and Canada and Mexico can work with USTR requests.

The agreement is the foundation of the integrated nature of our relationship. If it goes away, none of us are bound by those rules anymore. That's why the implications of the agreement going away are enormous.

Could the US do a deal with Mexico and leave Canada out?

David Westin

Kirsten Hillman

The USMCA contains all rules on IP, agriculture, services, and customs coordination. It is the foundation of the integrated relationship.

There's a lot of discussion around tariffs, but the agreement itself is what binds the three countries together.

What are the prospects of enhanced trade vs. just not losing what we have?

David Westin

Kirsten Hillman

If countries agree to review and modify USMCA, they have the option of renewing it for 16 years with another review in 6 years. The clause was created so all three parties come every six years to assess if it's still fit for purpose.

We all lived with NAFTA that became impossible to modify until President Trump opened it up. That resulted in a much more modern and effective agreement with a mechanism to look at it every six years.

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