UBS strategist on market asymmetry and defense (with Anna, Guy)

Yields

NDX

RUT

explicit

Metals

USD

UBS 8.8
Investment Bank $4300.00B
Bhanu Baweja 9.0

UBS strategist on market asymmetry and defense (with Anna, Guy)

wti

If Strait closed through April, oil 130-150. Based on physical shortage evidence from products (jet fuel, diesel). Conflict extends ? non-linear price moves possible.

14 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

4/1/2026 8:36:06 AM	short term up	5 days later	+1.26%	+1.26%
3/23/2026 9:02:01 AM	short term cautious up	6 days later	+11.40%	+5.70%
3/23/2026 8:22:55 AM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+7.29%	+3.64%
3/17/2026 10:29:24 AM	short term up	5 days later	-8.50%	-8.50%
3/12/2026 2:13:06 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+13.00%	+19.50%
3/4/2026 11:08:33 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+11.49%	+5.75%
11/25/2025 7:45:19 AM	medium term up	20 days later	-5.76%	-5.76%
11/13/2025 7:13:56 PM	short term down	5 days later	-1.08%	+1.08%

Show all 8 wti results

Is risk appetite holding up better than expected?

Host
Bhanu Baweja

Market was playing early cycle (rotation to cyclicals, small caps, rest of world). Those rotations not fully unwound—market expects short conflict.

Six-month Brent trades 35% below spot, pricing speedy resolution.
What happens if conflict drags?

Host
Bhanu Baweja

Cyclicals, small caps, low quality, EM, Europe would underperform. Losses amplified by unwinding rotations.

Growth-inflation mix deterioration bad for equities.
How to position as risk manager?

Host
Bhanu Baweja

Look for convex positions. Front-end fixed income (US, UK) has value—market overpricing hikes. In equities, play defense: utilities, consumer staples, energy. Not time for deep cyclicals.

Gold not a good hedge now due to volatility.
Price vs availability concern?

Host
Bhanu Baweja

For nat gas, availability issue. For oil products, mainly price hit. Europe: price hit. Asia: both quantity and price.

Thankfully not morphing into food inflation shock yet.
How big are tail scenarios?

Host
Bhanu Baweja

If Strait closed through April, oil 130-150. Beyond that, global recession risk high. Credit is left tail risk—hasn't moved much.

Equities closer to fair value; sell-side hasn't downgraded earnings yet (cost-push inflation will hit margins).

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