Iran War Negotiations and Economic Impact (with Shery Ahn, Haidi Lun)

President Trump called off fresh strikes but is now threatening them again. Where are we in negotiations?

Shery Ahn

Derek Wallbank

We are in the middle of a short pause. The president was called by Persian Gulf allies and decided not to go forward. The new timeline is a decision point maybe over the weekend or early next week. The White House is very sensitive to economic notes like retail gasoline prices, diesel prices, and supply shocks throughout the supply chain.

Affordability is the number one issue in the midterm elections. Trump needs a defensible way to get out, but both sides are still very far apart, each insisting on something the other says is a red line.

NATO is discussing the possibility of helping vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. What do we know about this?

Haidi Lun

Derek Wallbank

There is a long-standing theory called the 'Pottery Barn rule' (you break it, you buy it). NATO has the view that if something you do causes a problem, you are responsible for fixing it. Donald Trump has the view that Europe should play a bigger role. You are starting to see a shift into 'where do we go from here'.

There are downstream impacts like fertilizer shortages and continued escalation in airfare prices. A procedural vote in the US Senate went against the president on the Iran War, showing some discontent bubbling up politically.

SignalTube