Ghabour: "High" Chance of 10% SPX Correction, Tech Buy Opportunities Coming

Yields

NDX down , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT down

Oil cautious up , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Metals up , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

USD

Key Advisors Wealth Management 4.2
Wealth Manager
Eddie Ghabour 8.0

Ghabour: "High" Chance of 10% SPX Correction, Tech Buy Opportunities Coming

SPX; gold

metals

we're increasing our gold position. we bought copper Action is part of defensive shift and stagflation hedge. Buying is a direct, current position increase, indicating a positive near-term view.

1 calls

-55

reliably incorrect, often opposite to market

ndx

Explicitly underweighting 'technology', expecting 'bigger deceleration' in software/semis next quarter leading to 'problems', and forecasting tech will lose more than the S&P in a correction. Mag Seven all under 50-day MA is 'not a buy sign'. This constitutes a clear negative directional view on the Nasdaq-100's major components.

rut

We took down our small cap exposure to its minimum position... from 6-7% to 2% Explicit reduction in exposure due to data being 'the complete opposite of what you want to own in those areas'. Action implies a negative near-term outlook for small caps (Russell 2000 proxy).

4 calls

+1

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

3/4/2026 3:01:11 AM	short term up	5 days later	-1.45%	-1.45%
1/14/2026 1:00:59 AM	medium term up	20 days later	-1.87%	-1.87%
12/23/2025 1:00:55 AM	medium term up	20 days later	+3.34%	+3.34%

Show all 3 rut results

wti

oil at these elevated levels over the coming weeks... oil to stay elevated even if it doesn't go up a dollar from here View driven by war-related supply chain disruptions keeping Strait of Hormuz traffic from normal, sustaining price pressure. Expects elevated levels to persist, implying a 'cautious up' or 'sideways at high level' view rather than a sharp rally.

1 calls

-21

consistently off direction or weak follow-through

Asks Eddie Ghabour to define what defensive portfolio positioning looks like, specifically if it means loading up on defense stocks like Lockheed Martin.

speaker1
Eddie Ghabour

Explains defensive shift is about raising cash, not buying defense stocks. Concerned about stagflationary environment from elevated oil. Is raising cash, increasing gold, buying copper, and underweighting tech. Doing opposite of 3 weeks ago due to data shift from decelerating inflation/accelerating growth to the opposite scenario.

Accumulating 'dry powder' to take advantage of an expected bigger market drop over coming weeks, noting S&P resilience despite bearish data outlook.
Asks if war with Iran will last longer than market prices.

speaker1
Eddie Ghabour

Absolutely worries war will last longer. Fed won't cut rates unless economy gets really bad, creating a policy 'lose lose'. Boots on ground would add uncertainty. Sees strong back half of year possible but major near-term headwind.

Markets move fast; can be down 10-15% in weeks.
Clarifies: 'So you are expecting a correction then, Eddie.'

speaker1
Eddie Ghabour

Absolutely expects correction. Very high probability of S&P 10% correction, meaning tech/high-beta will lose more. Following data, scaling back clients to see how things unfold.

Can flip back if war ends, but wrong positioning risks missing the upcoming dip.
Pushes back on underweight tech call, noting tech leading today and risk of missing out.

speaker1
Eddie Ghabour

Acknowledges risk. Underweight call based on post-earnings rejection due to decelerating earnings growth (from 50% to 15-10%). Expects bigger deceleration in software/semis next quarter.

If wrong, will pivot. Sees strong future buying opportunities in tech for those who play it right.
Seeks clarification on tech buying opportunity timing: 'later this year you mean'.

speaker1
Eddie Ghabour

Sees buying opportunity in tech late Q2/early Q3 for a 'wash out'. Tech is most concentrated Wall Street trade, a source of funds for rotation. Mag Seven all under 50-day MA is not a buy sign.
Asks to elaborate on stagflation concerns mentioned in prior BBC interview.

speaker1
Eddie Ghabour

Expects short-term stagflationary data due to oil. Oil touches all economy; supply chain disruptions will keep oil elevated. Elevated oil means inflationary data increases and growth decelerates.

Market is front-running this data shift, causing economically sensitive areas to break down.
Asks for final thought on small caps, which he was previously constructive on.

speaker1
Eddie Ghabour

Reduced small cap exposure from 6-7% to 2% two weeks ago. Sold economically sensitive areas. Data opposite of what you want for small caps.

Sees small caps, like tech, as a big buying opportunity late Q2/early Q3 if war doesn't stretch for months.

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