Positive signs on inflation were already visible before the Iran MOU - shelter deceleration, tariff impacts fading, core goods negative. Falling oil adds to this. The FOMC repricing in the front end of the curve creates a tremendous opportunity to own fixed income. Markets are too focused on AI; there are opportunities outside semiconductors in large-cap quality. Diversification is key.

We're in the largest concentrated capex boom in 25 years, potentially the largest in our lifetimes. Too much nominal GDP growth has come from price increases. The Fed under new management has pivoted from dovish to keeping rates flat. AI executives' messaging has not been helpful politically. If central banks don't deliver price stability, policymakers may pursue interventionist policies.

AI infrastructure buildout is shifting from training to inferencing workloads. Inferencing requires minimizing latency rather than giant clusters. Hyperscalers are signing many leases because it's not just about getting GPUs anymore. Open AI's custom chip with Broadcom aims for 50% cost savings but first versions likely won't match Nvidia.

Micron is priced for perfection with options markets implying wild swings. There's opportunity beneath the surface in tech as equal-weight tech has performed in line with market-cap tech. 'False diversification' means passive indices appear diversified but are concentrated in a few names. Gold faces headwinds from higher-for-longer rates but has central bank buying support long-term.

Long-term AI beneficiaries may not be tech companies. Healthcare and manufacturing automation are key areas. European automakers are at a structural disadvantage to China. Kevin Warsh is exactly what the market needs - his focus on inflation and data-driven approach is driving dollar strength. The dollar at its strongest point YTD is a function of Warsh's messaging.

Micron earnings are the next big test for the AI trade, with revenue expected up ~300% YoY. Memory remains the key bottleneck in data center buildout. The debate is whether high-bandwidth memory demand is infinite or cyclical. SK Hynix's US listing aims to close valuation gap with peers.

FedEx demand outlook is decent with no major demand destruction from oil prices. The stock's aftermarket drop was due to full-year guidance slightly below whisper numbers and profit-taking after strong YTD outperformance. FedEx is well-positioned post-spin-off of truckload business.

President Trump ordered DOJ to investigate retail gasoline prices, alleging price gouging. WTI is down ~25% this month vs 14% for retail gasoline. Gasoline prices don't adjust immediately to crude changes due to supply chain lags. Political pressure on affordability is mounting ahead of midterms.