Micron earnings preview and AI chip landscape (with Matt Miller, Dani Burger)

Micron earnings are the next big test for the AI trade, with revenue expected up ~300% YoY. Memory remains the key bottleneck in data center buildout. The debate is whether high-bandwidth memory demand is infinite or cyclical. SK Hynix's US listing aims to close valuation gap with peers.

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Ed Ludlow 4.0

Micron earnings preview and AI chip landscape (with Matt Miller, Dani Burger)

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Micron earnings are a high bar event with potential for wild swings; options markets imply significant volatility.

Asks about the significance of Micron earnings for the AI trade and overall market.

Dani Burger
Ed Ludlow

Micron earnings are highly analogous to the Nvidia story. For fiscal Q3, revenue expected up ~300% YoY, net income up ~1200%. The outlook is key because memory is the bottleneck. The debate is whether HBM demand is infinite or cyclical.

Memory historically has been highly cyclical. The concern is overbuilding capacity if demand goes away, as memory fab economics require high yield and full utilization.
Asks about supply constraints and whether we'll hear about capacity expansion on the call, and if HBM makers are putting fabs in the US.

Matt Miller
Ed Ludlow

Micron is already expanding capacity in the US on the East Coast. The industry debate is whether this HBM demand run-up is infinite or will have boom-bust cycles as memory has traditionally done.

Jake Silverman from BI is in the camp that this will still be cyclical. The concern for memory makers is overbuilding capacity and being left with facilities that aren't running.

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