Asian Markets and Dollar Weakness (with Shery Ahn, Avril Hong)

Yields

NDX

RUT

Oil

explicit

Invesco 8.5
Asset Manager $1000.00B
David Chao 8.5

Asian Markets and Dollar Weakness (with Shery Ahn, Avril Hong)

dxy

I think that dollar is still likely to weaken... Dollar remains expensive relative to a basket of currencies, especially a basket of Asian currencies.

3 calls

-1

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

1/14/2026 1:54:47 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-1.71%	+0.86%
12/3/2025 9:18:48 AM	short term down	5 days later	+0.23%	-0.23%

metals

Gold could continue to do well in this in reflationary environment.

4 calls

-8

slightly worse than random

10/14/2025 1:12:51 AM	medium term up	20 days later	-10.62%	-10.62%

David Chao

The dollar is still likely to weaken. It remains expensive relative to a basket of Asian currencies.

Asian banks are on hold because the Fed didn't cut, but Asia has lower inflation, so they still have the luxury of cutting rates, supporting equities.
David Chao

The Asian economy is reflating due to monetary and fiscal stimulus (e.g., Japan). In a reflationary environment, equities are preferred over fixed income.

Gold could also continue to do well in this reflationary environment.
David Chao

There is too much pessimism around Indonesia. It looks interesting given rock-bottom valuations and a diversified, cyclical economy.

As the Asian economy reflates, you want to be long cyclically-adjusted economies like Indonesia.
David Chao

Dollar weakening is an integral component for EM to outperform US markets. The trifecta is: dollar weakening, local central banks cutting, and oil under $80.

Looking at data since 1974, EM is the best performer when the dollar is weakening.

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