Scott Lander: "AI Matters More Than Oil on Market Impact"

AI's tangible earnings power is correctly trumping the discounted tail risk of an oil shock. The primary headwind is now rates, not geopolitics. With the 10Y yield > 4.5%, further multiple expansion is capped, putting the onus on pure earnings growth. The trade is to stay long mega-cap AI leaders and rotate out of rate-sensitive small/mid-caps. LatAm/Asia for selective commodity/international exposure.

explicit

RUT

implicit

Metals

USD

Latin America cautious up

Horizon Investments 4.2
Wealth Manager
Scott Lander 8.0

Scott Lander: "AI Matters More Than Oil on Market Impact"

Iran; AI

ndx

We are kind of leaning back into the tech game... you can't get short AI or be underweight AI, like you've got to be playing that game for the next several years because it will be the driver.

yields

We are probably going to have a hard time going meaningfully higher in equities if we can't get 10 year rate under 4.5% again.

8/8/2025 3:04:53 PM	medium term cautious down	22 days later	+0.09%	-0.05%

Marley Kayden

Introduces the guest and the central thesis: AI matters more than oil right now, despite a potential energy shock.
Scott Ladner

AI has been far more important than oil in driving equity markets over the last few weeks, driven by a blowout earnings season through top/bottom lines and margins.
Marley Kayden

Questions if the market is ignoring the oil/geopolitical risk because the full economic damage hasn't been felt yet.
Scott Ladner

The market is doing a 'read and react' game on oil, not a forecasting game, as predictions of $200-300 oil have not materialized. The risk of a prolonged conflict causing much higher oil prices remains a tail risk.
Marley Kayden

Points out the disconnect between equity and bond markets, with bonds signaling 'higher for longer' rates while equities were ignoring it. Asks if the market is finally acknowledging this.
Scott Ladner

Equities have started to wake up to the 'higher for longer' rate environment, which is a headwind for equity multiples. The market will have a hard time going meaningfully higher if the 10-year yield can't get back under 4.5%.
Marley Kayden

Asks how Ladner is approaching investing given AI is the driver and rates are higher for longer.
Scott Ladner

The firm is leaning back into mega-cap tech and AI, having pulled out of small and mid-caps. They are also looking at Latin America for commodity exposure and Asia internationally.

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