The MOU is little more than a surrender. We removed massive sanctions on oil, gas, and petrochemicals for 60 days. Iran can sell anywhere in dollars, get access to $6-12 billion in unfrozen assets. All they had to do was open the straits and agree to talk. We haven't agreed on the nuclear program, but ballistic missiles and support for proxy groups are off the table. We've given Iran a huge political win.

The president's clip about food and medicine confuses two different revenue types. The food/medicine is for unfrozen assets in Qatar. Oil revenues can be used for anything.

Initially, Chinese and Indian consumers with legitimacy. The rest of the market will wait to see how long this lasts—the worst thing is to unsanction and then re-sanction. Some trading houses will buy, blend, and sell wherever. It will be a gradual broadening.

The Gulf is not a monolith. The political winner is Qatar, which is setting American Middle East policy. Others in the Gulf are concerned: Iran was a threat, the US convinced them to join in conflict, and now Iran emerges stronger. They are left with a well-funded, angry, vengeful neighbor. Iran's oil and petrochemical sales alone could bring in about $1 billion a week. Gulf countries will have to invest in their own defense, thinking the US has become extremely short-term thinking.

Five or ten years ago, yes, you'd talk about risk premiums. But the market is focused on tech: AI CapEx, data centers, IPOs, space. Energy is judged as 'will this drag me down?' If not, they don't want to talk about it. There is a risk: Iran controls the straits and can impose 48-hour notice or deny certain tankers. But the market isn't looking at it. Brent at $77 still trades at a significant premium to the $56-60 level before the winds of war in December. If prices come down further, we'll see if they can go back to December levels, and that's where a $5-10 risk premium will be put in.

I never agreed with that. Countries like UAE and Saudi are looking at tech as long-term diversification away from oil. That has become more acute, not less. They will spend on diversifying their energy sector away from the Strait of Hormuz (a few billion dollars) and double down on tech investments, mostly in the US. There's a ceiling for China investment, Europe is non-existent. The question is whether American and European companies will want to build data centers in the Gulf. But more money will come into tech, some healthcare, sports, and entertainment.