Xi is reprioritizing from short-term growth to long-term structural goals like air quality, which means relying even more on the export engine. Expects the Yuan to stay stable (USDCNY 7.0-7.1) as a strengthening currency is unsustainable amid deceleration.

They can't have a strengthening currency that's going into this deceleration that they are not able to get a hold of.

Expects continued incremental, targeted stimulus, not a big-bang approach. The government will not provide the massive stimulus the market might want.

EM currency gains will slow to ~3% vs USD in 2026 from 8% this year due to expensive valuations, compressed carry buffers, and expected rising volatility. Still likes high-yielders in Latam and frontier markets, but funding leg is switching from USD to EUR.

Next year, we expect for that to only be about 3% versus $1. So substantially slower performance, that's because valuations are much more expensive now. The carry buffers have compressed.

Expects the dollar to dip to ~96.5 in Q1 2026 on weak US data, then rebound to 100 or slightly above. A range of 3-4%.

We think over the course of the next couple of months, we will see a last dip lower in the dollar... that will cause a dollar to come down to maybe 96.5 type levels by first quarter of next year. And then we expect for it to rebound, to back toward a hundred or slightly above.